Delcy Rodríguez is the officially recognized leader of Venezuela on December 31, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 6% by 31 Dec 2026. The market says 44%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

6% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-31.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 4% — Rodríguez only rises if Maduro is abruptly removed or dies, and even then military elites may install someone else. Maduro retains control over the military and state machinery, making his exit before late 2026 unlikely. As executive vice president she is constitutionally first in line, but Diosdado Cabello and Padrino López hold harder leverage. A Maduro incapacitation leading to an uncontested Rodríguez succession within three months is a very narrow path.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 4% — This hinges on Maduro losing power and Rodríguez specifically succeeding him as recognized head of state. Maduro remains firmly in control as of Sept 2026 despite US pressure, sanctions, and military posturing. Even if a transition occurred, Rodríguez is one of many possible successors (military figures, opposition leaders like González/Machado are more prominent… Base rate for a specific named successor to an entrenched authoritarian leader within a ~3 month window is very low absent an active ongoing crisis naming her.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 72% — It turns on whether the interim succession is formalized by year-end rather than displaced by a Maduro restoration or rival claim. Rodríguez, as vice president, is the constitutionally positioned successor after Maduro's reported removal in January 2026. The governing PSUV, military command, courts, and electoral bodies remain aligned enough to sustain the incumbent through December. A verified return by Maduro, a coup, or an internationally recognized opposition transition would sharply reduce the chance.

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Grok (xAI): 7% — Maduro must leave office in the next 100 days for VP Delcy to become head of state. No election or term limit expires before 31 Dec 2026; Maduro has ruled continuously since 2013. Delcy succeeds only via death, resignation or successful coup; those events are rare in a 3-month window. A confirmed Maduro health crisis or military defection would raise the odds sharply.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Whether Maduro leaves power and Rodríguez inherits it before 2027 is the whole question. Maduro shows no sign of departing: he was sworn in for a third term in January 2025 and the military high command remains loyal, so a handover would require a rupture… Rodríguez is Maduro's vice president and would only become head of state through his death, resignation, or removal — none of which has any scheduled mechanism or… The opposition won the July 2024 election by a wide margin and is recognized by many governments, but the UN still lists Maduro as head of state, so an official…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 3% — Maduro remains firmly in power with no credible succession mechanism pointing to Rodríguez as head of state. Rodríguez is Vice President; she would only become head of state if Maduro dies, resigns, or is removed before Dec 31, 2026. Maduro, age 61, has consolidated military and institutional control; no visible health crisis or coup risk has emerged as of late 2026. Even in a Maduro departure scenario, the constitution calls for new elections within 30 days, making Rodríguez only an interim placeholder briefly.

Delcy Rodríguez is the officially recognized leader of Venezuela on December 31, 2026.

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