The effective ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through November 15, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 93% by 16 Nov 2026. The market says 64%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

93% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-16.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 98% — Direct US kinetic strikes inside sovereign Iranian territory are historically rare and unlikely to erupt across a ten-day window. Washington consistently restricts direct retaliatory strikes to regional proxies in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen to avoid total war. A direct mainland strike requires extreme provocation and multi-day escalation cycles that are not currently materializing. Only a mass-casualty attack directly attributable to Tehran could trigger an immediate US strike on Iranian soil by November 15.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 93% — Short 10-day window; ceasefire has held since mid-2025 strikes, no imminent trigger visible. Only 10 days remain, far too short for a new major escalation cycle to develop absent an existing crisis trigger. US-Iran ceasefire has persisted for well over a year since the June 2025 strikes, suggesting durable deterrence equilibrium. Main risk would be a sudden Iranian provocation (proxy attack, nuclear breakout move) prompting rapid US retaliation before Nov 15.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 91% — The key risk is a rapid escalation from regional incidents into a direct U.S. strike on Iranian soil within ten days. The relevant window is only November 5–15, leaving limited time for force posture, target approval, and operational execution. Direct U.S. attacks on Iran are far rarer than strikes on Iranian-backed groups, so the short-window base rate favors restraint. A fatal Iran-linked attack on U.S. forces or a major nuclear escalation would sharply lower this estimate.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 91% — Ten-day window with talks ongoing makes a US strike on Iran territory improbable. US must order air or surface missiles hitting Iran soil by 15 Nov; that needs a casus belli plus hours of planning. Direct US-Iran strikes are rare even in tense years; a 10-day slice under active talks sits well below that rate. A large Iranian attack on US/Israeli assets or confirmed nuclear breakout would flip the odds overnight.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 94% — Only 11 days remain, and no U.S. strike on Iranian soil is currently telegraphed or underway. The window is 11 days; base rate for a U.S. air/missile strike on Iran in any random 11-day stretch is very low. Any strike requires Trump's authorization and force posture already in place; no carrier or bomber surge is reported as of Nov 5. The main risk is an Iranian provocation or proxy attack triggering retaliation, but that would need to escalate to direct U.S. strikes within days.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 93% — Ten days left with active negotiations; a sudden US strike on Iranian soil would require a dramatic trigger that hasn't materialized. Direct US strikes on Iranian territory are historically near-zero frequency events even during peak crises (Soleimani 2020 being the sole modern example). Active security negotiations reduce the probability of a snap escalation decision within a 10-day window. A major catalyzing event—such as a mass-casualty attack on US forces attributed to Iran—would be needed to shift this, and none is currently reported.

The effective ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through November 15, 2026.

A nuclear weapon is used in military conflict before the end of 2026.

The New START treaty or an equivalent bilateral US-Russia nuclear framework expires without replacement before 2027.

The US publicly announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by November 15, 2026.

A nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war before 2030.