Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attends a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026.
Measures direct diplomacy amid bilateral tensions. Resolves Yes if the Iranian parliament speaker attends a formal senior-level round of talks with the US.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.
They broadly agree, 10 points between DeepSeek at 12% and Claude at 2%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 20%, so the models are 16 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -16 pts
- Moved this week
- +2 pts
- Since we asked
- 0 pts
- Volume
- $107K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 4% against 20%.
What each one said
-
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Ghalibaf is a hardline IRGC-linked figure the US won't seat at talks, and no US-Iran round is even scheduled.
- Oman-mediated US-Iran talks stalled after June 2025 Israeli strikes; no senior round has convened since, and none is on the calendar.
- Ghalibaf, parliament speaker since 2020, is not Iran's nuclear negotiator — that track runs through Araghchi and the Supreme National Security Council.
- Even if talks resume, Washington's sanctions on Ghalibaf and his IRGC background make him an implausible US counterpart before Dec 31.
12% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns on Tehran elevating its parliament speaker into a U.S. negotiating channel within just over three months.
- Ghalibaf is a powerful political figure, but Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Foreign Ministry normally run nuclear diplomacy.
- No Iranian parliament speaker has been a standard participant in formal U.S.-Iran negotiating rounds; the remaining window is unusually short.
- A U.S.-Iran summit framework or a leadership transition giving Ghalibaf an executive negotiating mandate would materially raise the odds.
4% -
GrokxAI
Ghalibaf joining an in-person US-Iran round in the remaining 3.5 months.
- Talks, when they occur, use FM/nuclear envoys not the Majlis speaker; none are scheduled before 31 Dec.
- Ghalibaf’s IRGC-hardliner profile and legislative role make his inclusion even less likely than the already-low base rate of any senior US-Iran meeting.
- A sudden Oman/Vienna round announced this month with him named would shift the odds; nothing else would.
4% -
GeminiGoogle
Iranian parliamentary speakers almost never conduct direct diplomatic negotiations with the US, which Supreme Leader Khamenei reserves for the MFA.
- Diplomatic engagement with the US is handled exclusively by the Foreign Ministry, Supreme National Security Council, and President.
- With only 3.5 months until the end of 2026, bilateral tensions make unprecedented high-level legislative summitry virtually impossible.
- Even if nuclear talks resume via Omani mediation, Ghalibaf would remain in Tehran passing enabling laws rather than joining delegations.
3% -
QwenAlibaba
Ghalibaf attending US-Iran talks requires a diplomatic breakthrough that neither side is positioned to deliver in 15 weeks.
- Ghalibaf is parliament speaker, not a foreign-policy negotiator; Iran's Supreme Leader would need to personally authorize his participation, which has no precedent.
- US-Iran formal talks have not occurred at this level since JCPOA negotiations ended in 2015; even the 2025 indirect Oman channel used lower-level envoys.
- A development that would change this: a sudden crisis (e.g., military escalation) forcing both sides to the table with Ghalibaf as a regime-approved face.
3% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Parliament speakers don't run bilateral negotiations; that's the foreign ministry's job, not Ghalibaf's.
- Iran's nuclear/US talks track has been led by Araghchi/foreign ministry officials, not the parliament speaker.
- Ghalibaf is a hardline legislative figure with no diplomatic negotiating mandate, making his personal attendance highly atypical.
- US-Iran talks themselves remain uncertain given post-strike tensions, and even if talks occur, speaker-level attendance is not the norm.
2%
6 of 6 models answered · 10 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part
Question sourced from Polymarket on 16 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.