Nicolás Maduro is the officially recognized head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026.
Following contested elections, Maduro's presidency remains disputed internationally. Resolves based on whether he officially holds the position as head of state on December 31, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 80%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 92% and DeepSeek at 62%, 30 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 45%, so the models are 35 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 31 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +35 pts
- Moved this week
- -38 pts
- Volume
- $3.0M
The models are sharply more confident than traders risking real money: 80% against 45%.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Maduro controls Venezuela's institutions and UN representation, with only three months left in 2026 for a collapse to occur.
- From late September to December 2026 is just over three months, leaving little runway for a successful military coup or sudden exit.
- The criteria defer to internal state confirmation or UN protocol, both of which currently recognize Maduro de facto and de jure.
- Only a sudden defection by top military brass or Maduro's untimely death would unseat him before the year-end deadline.
92% -
GrokxAI
Maduro remaining in Caracas control through year-end with UN/government listing him as head of state.
- Only 102 days remain; no announced succession, resignation, or successful coup is underway as of 20 Sep 2026.
- Venezuelan protocol and UN Protocol list still name Maduro; any change requires CNE/TSJ action plus a swearing-in that has not been scheduled.
- Base rate of incumbents surviving 3-month windows in hybrid autocracies exceeds 90 percent; only a military defection or US-backed transition would reverse this, neither…
88% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns chiefly on whether the security elite and armed forces continue backing Maduro through the final three months.
- Maduro was sworn in for a six-year term on January 10, 2025, and Venezuela’s institutions currently recognize him.
- Leadership removals in entrenched authoritarian systems are uncommon absent an elite rupture, military split, or negotiated transition.
- A decisive US-backed deal, mass defections, or a military break before December 31 would materially lower this estimate.
82% -
QwenAlibaba
Maduro controls the military, courts, and electoral apparatus; removal requires a coup or foreign intervention, both unlikely in 3 months.
- Maduro has survived since 2013 through multiple crises, coup attempts (2019), and sanctions; the military loyalty structure remains intact as of Sept 2026.
- The resolution criteria default to UN recognition if Venezuela's government is ambiguous, and the UN protocol list has consistently recognized Maduro's government.
- A coup or US military intervention in the next ~100 days would be the main scenario to shift this; neither has credible near-term indicators as of today.
78% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Turns on whether US military/political pressure escalates into regime change before year-end 2026.
- Maduro retains firm control of military/security apparatus and has survived multiple prior crises since 2019.
- US has increased pressure (sanctions, naval deployments, bounty) but no imminent invasion or negotiated exit confirmed as of Sept 2026.
- A sudden US strike, internal coup, or negotiated departure before Dec 31 2026 would flip this, but such abrupt regime change remains a minority scenario historically.
72% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether Maduro physically remains in Miraflores and retains the armed forces' loyalty through year-end.
- Maduro was sworn in for a third term on Jan 10, 2025, and Venezuela's constitution sets the next inauguration for Jan 10, 2027, so no scheduled transition falls inside…
- The UN protocol list and most state-recognized channels still name Maduro; the EU and several Latin American states recognize González as president-elect but cannot…
- The base rate for an incumbent holding power through a full calendar year absent a coup, death, or negotiated exit is high; the main break scenario is a military…
62%
6 of 6 models answered · 30 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective;
Question sourced from Polymarket on 20 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.