Palestinian officials denied US visas attend the UN General Assembly in New York.
The United States rejected visa requests for Palestinian delegations prior to the UN General Assembly. Official attendance logs or UN proceedings verify if any affected officials attend in person.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 72% and Grok at 7%, 65 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 19 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
The outcome turns on whether the denial is enforced against named PLO/PA officials rather than waived for UN access.
- The U.S. has reportedly rejected visas, and the late-September General Debate leaves little time for administrative reversal.
- Host-country obligations usually favor UN access, but U.S. precedent allows restrictions tied to security or diplomatic disputes.
- A State Department waiver or remote/third-country delegation arrangement would materially weaken a finding of in-person absence.
72% -
QwenAlibaba
US visa denials for Palestinian officials at UNGA are routine; the question is whether this year's cycle produces a confirmed denial.
- The US has denied or delayed Palestinian Authority visas for UNGA multiple times (2019, 2023, 2024); the State Department uses the same legal basis each year.
- UNGA 2026 opens mid-September; if denials occur they'd be confirmed within days of the general debate, well before the October 19 resolution date.
- A shift in US policy toward the PA or a UN Security Council intervention granting safe-passage guarantees would be the main surprise factor lowering this.
72% -
GeminiGoogle
Attendance requires the US State Department to reverse visa rejections under UN Headquarters Agreement obligations or grant waivers.
- US border controls strictly block foreign nationals lacking valid visas, making physical entry impossible without policy reversal.
- Diplomatic blowback occasionally forces last-minute waivers under Section 11 of the 1947 agreement, but reversals are historically rare.
- Dual-nationality exemptions or emergency waivers granted before the high-level debate concludes represent the only viable paths.
14% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether the US reverses visa denials or Palestinian officials attend virtually only, before UNGA session ends.
- The US State Department has consistently denied entry to PA/PLO officials citing legal authority under 2025 visa restrictions.
- UNGA high-level week for 2026 falls within this window, and past precedent shows video/virtual addresses substitute rather than in-person attendance.
- A federal court injunction or diplomatic reversal by the Trump administration would be the main path to change this, but no such move is pending.
10% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
The US controls the visas, and it has already said no; reversal would require a political decision it has shown no sign of making.
- The State Department denied the visas under the 1952 INA, and UN HQ rules only require the US to facilitate access, not guarantee it.
- Precedent: in 2019 the US denied visas to Iran's foreign minister and Russia's delegation; those officials did not attend in person.
- The only realistic path is a US reversal before the high-level debate ends in late September, which would require a political shift with no current signal.
8% -
GrokxAI
US visa denials block physical entry to New York unless State reverses them before UNGA ends.
- Palestine is a UN observer, not a member, so the Headquarters Agreement does not compel visas the way it does for member-state delegates.
- Past US practice (e.g., 2017–18 and 2024–25 cycles) left denied Palestinian officials unable to appear in person; virtual statements do not count.
- A last-minute reversal by the State Department before the high-level week closes around 30 September is the only development that would change the outcome.
7%
6 of 6 models answered · 65 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 19 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.