▢ POLICY & LAW 3 MONTHS HORIZON RESOLVES 21 DEC 2026 · in 3mo

The Election Commission of India publishes the draft electoral roll for the upcoming assembly cycle before December 2026.

Draft electoral rolls are periodically released ahead of major state and local election cycles. Resolves yes if the ECI formally publishes the draft rolls for the next cycle before December 1, 2026.

Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 84%.

They broadly agree, 16 points between Gemini at 94% and GPT at 78%.

Nothing is settled until 21 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.

MODEL BY MODEL

What each one said

  • GeminiGoogle

    The ECI routinely initiates the annual Special Summary Revision with draft roll publication in late October or early November.

    • ECI consistently schedules the nationwide draft roll publication for late October or November under the annual Special Summary Revision.
    • Draft rolls for 2027 assembly cycles (like UP and Punjab) with reference date January 1 are statutorily due before December.
    • Only major administrative disruptions or severe legal challenges to delimitation/voter lists would delay rollout past November 30.
    google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 22 Sept 2026
    94%
  • DeepSeekDeepSeek

    ECI has already begun publishing draft rolls for the 2027 cycle; the only question is whether the remaining states slip past December.

    • ECI published draft rolls for Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Himachal in August-September 2026, with special summary revision underway.
    • The remaining 2027-cycle states (Punjab, Goa, Manipur, etc.) are scheduled for draft publication in October-November 2026, well before the deadline.
    • ECI has never missed a statutory draft-roll deadline in a normal cycle; the 2026 calendar is already in motion and only a court stay or national emergency would derail…
    deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 22 Sept 2026
    88%
  • ClaudeAnthropic

    ECI's routine annual roll revision cycle almost always produces draft rolls well before major state elections.

    • ECI follows a standing annual schedule publishing draft electoral rolls typically around October-November each year ahead of assembly elections.
    • States due for elections in 2027 (e.g., UP, Punjab, Gujarat, Himachal) require draft rolls published well in advance, historically by year-end of the prior year.
    • Main risk is delay from SIR-style special intensive revision disputes or litigation, but ECI has consistently met statutory deadlines in past cycles.
    anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 22 Sept 2026
    85%
  • QwenAlibaba

    ECI routinely publishes draft rolls ~3-6 months before state elections; several states are due in 2027.

    • States like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand have assembly terms expiring in early-to-mid 2027, triggering roll preparation now.
    • ECI's standard practice is to publish draft rolls with a qualifying date of Jan 1 of the election year, meaning drafts typically appear in Oct-Nov of the prior year.
    • The only scenario for 'no' would be if ECI delays beyond Dec 1, which is unusual but possible given administrative variability; a development that would change my mind…
    qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 22 Sept 2026
    82%
  • GPTOpenAI

    It chiefly depends on the next assembly poll schedule and the statutory revision calendar in the relevant states.

    • ECI and state Chief Electoral Officers routinely publish draft rolls during annual special-summary revisions before elections.
    • The key clearance is ECI’s revision notification; late-2026 assembly-cycle states normally need rolls finalized weeks before polling.
    • Odds would fall sharply if the next relevant assembly elections are deferred or ECI postpones the revision after litigation or a census-linked change.
    openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 22 Sept 2026
    78%
  • GrokxAI

    Turns on ECI following its usual annual SSR calendar and issuing the 2027 draft roll in November.

    • ECI typically notifies SSR in September and publishes the draft electoral roll in the first half of November, well before 1 Dec.
    • Assembly polls in 2027 (e.g. Punjab, Uttarakhand, UP, Goa) require a fresh roll, so the 2026 SSR is the relevant cycle.
    • A delay past 1 Dec would be unusual absent a court stay or major political crisis; none is visible as of 22 Sep.
    x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 22 Sept 2026
    78%

6 of 6 models answered · 16 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.

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Question sourced from a news sweep on 22 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.