The EPA formally rescinds or terminates the mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program before March 2027.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 18% by 28 Apr 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

18% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-04-28.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 27% — Full rescission faces high APA procedural bars and statutory duties under CAA Section 114, favoring narrowing over termination. Rescinding a 40 CFR Part 98 framework requires notice-and-comment rulemaking that typically spans 12 to 18 months under the APA. The EPA has paused enforcement before, but total termination invites immediate D.C. Circuit stays under arbitrary-and-capricious review. A formal proposal to repeal Part 98 rather than merely exempting subparts would flip odds above 60%.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Whether EPA finalizes a rule fully rescinding the GHGRP before the March 2027 deadline hits. EPA under the Trump administration has signaled intent to weaken or eliminate GHGRP but formal rulemaking with notice-and-comment takes 12-18+ months typically. Agencies often extend deadlines further rather than finish full rescission by a hard date, especially given litigation risk and statutory underpinnings tied to Clean Air… A proposed rule already published and fast-tracked with an abbreviated comment period before March 2027 would most increase this probability.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — It turns on whether EPA can complete a defensible repeal rule before the delayed 2025-reporting deadline. EPA must propose, take public comment, and issue a final rule; March 2027 leaves roughly five months. Major EPA reporting-rule repeals commonly take a year or more and invite APA challenges, making full termination atypical on this clock. A published NPRM explicitly proposing repeal by December 2026 would materially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 18% — EPA must finish a full APA repeal of 40 CFR Part 98 in the four months left. No NPRM has been published; comment period plus OMB review plus Federal Register final typically needs 6–12 months. Historic EPA recissions of major reporting rules average 8–14 months from proposal. Only an already-signed proposal sitting at OMB or a CRA-style legislative rider would change the timeline.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 12% — Only a final EPA rule can kill the program, and the agency is still collecting the data it delayed, not dismantling it. EPA delayed 2025 reporting to March 2027 for review, which signals retention with tweaks, not termination, since a repeal would moot the deadline. Rescinding a Clean Air Act section 114 reporting mandate requires a proposed rule, comment period, and final action, typically 12-24 months; under 5 months remain. Congressional Review Act repeal already lapsed, and no appropriations rider zeroing the program has advanced, so the base rate for agency self-repeal of a data program…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 9% — Formal rescission requires APA notice-and-comment; no proposed rule visible by late 2026 makes a final rule by April 2027 nearly impossible. APA rulemaking for a program covering ~8,000 facilities typically needs 12–24 months from proposal to final rule; even a proposed rule published today leaves… The GHGRP provides data underlying other CAA programs and industry benchmarking, so even deregulatory administrations face institutional resistance to full termination… A development that would raise this: a proposed rescission already published in the Federal Register by mid-2026 with a short comment period, which has not occurred.

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