The EU AI Act's high-risk AI obligations for stand-alone systems take effect on 2 December 2027.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 73% by 3 Nov 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

73% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-11-03.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 88% — Turns on whether the Commission or Parliament reopen the revised timetable before the December 2027 enforcement deadline. The Digital Omnibus amendment already pushed high-risk dates back, establishing strong legislative inertia against further shifts. Reopening requires full co-decision by the Council and Parliament, which takes over 12 months and lacks political appetite. A catastrophic failure of standardisation bodies (CEN-CENELEC) delivering harmonised standards is the only realistic delay trigger.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 70% — Depends on whether the Digital Omnibus clears Parliament/Council in current form before the date arrives. The Omnibus proposal is still in legislative process and could face amendments pushing the date further or reverting it. EU legislative timetables often slip by months due to trilogue negotiations and political disputes over AI Act scope. A major change in political dynamics (e.g., industry lobbying for further delay or civil society pushback) could alter the final date before 2027.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 7% — This depends on Digital Omnibus becoming law with its proposed December 2027 deferral intact. The AI Act’s enacted Article 113 schedule put most standalone high-risk rules on 2 August 2026, not December 2027. Commission proposals need Parliament and Council agreement, trilogue text, publication, and a commencement clause before 2027. Odds would rise sharply if co-legislators formally adopt the Omnibus timetable before mid-2027.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 71% — Whether the Omnibus delay to 2 Dec 2027 stays unamended until then. Council/Parliament must enact any further slip before late 2027; none is tabled as of Nov 2026. AI Act high-risk originally hit Aug 2026; one Omnibus delay already occurred, so extra postponement base rate is ~30%. A new Commission proposal in 2027 would most shift the odds downward.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 88% — Whether the Nov 2025 Digital Omnibus delay survives trilogue intact through the 2027 deadline. The Digital Omnibus (proposed Nov 2025) explicitly pushes stand-alone high-risk obligations under Annex III to 2 December 2027, and Council/Parliament fast-tracked it… Commission, Council negotiators and Parliament must finalize trilogue text before the June 2027 EP plenary recess; the AI Act Article 113 already sets 2 August 2026 for… Precedent: the AI Act's own staged delays (GPAI moved to Aug 2025, then Aug 2027) show the EU routinely slips AI deadlines; only a fresh Commission proposal or Court…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 74% — Turns on whether the Digital Omnibus actually enacted this exact date and whether no further amendment shifts it before December 2027. The Digital Omnibus simplification package has been a live legislative vehicle since late 2024, and industry pressure for AI Act delays has been sustained and bipartisan… Once a date is codified in an amending regulation, further changes require a new legislative act—a high bar within 13 months—but the EU has precedent for last-minute… The specific date '2 December 2027' is precise enough to suggest it tracks a published text; a one-day or one-month discrepancy would falsify the statement, which is the…

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