The EU AI Act's marking duty for existing generative AI systems comes into force on 2 December 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 83% by 4 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

83% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-04.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 96% — Legislative timelines set in adopted EU acts rarely get postponed with only four weeks remaining before entry into force. Amending an enacted EU regulation requires a formal legislative procedure through the Council and Parliament, impossible in 28 days. EU AI Act Article 111 transitional provisions for legacy general-purpose AI and generative marking are already locked into statute. Only an unprecedented emergency corrigendum or fast-tracked suspension by both co-legislators could derail the 2 Dec 2026 deadline.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 62% — Hinges on whether EU institutions finalize the Digital Omnibus delay before Dec 2, 2026 deadline. The Digital Omnibus proposal seeks to push back GPAI transparency/marking obligations, but as of Nov 2026 it needs Council and Parliament agreement to take effect. EU legislative trilogues often slip past stated target dates, and marking/watermarking standards (AI Office technical specs) have faced delays before. If omnibus negotiations stall or only partially pass, the original Aug 2026 AI Act timeline reverts, making Dec 2 2026 enforcement plausible by default.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 82% — It mainly turns on whether the EU publishes a further amending measure before 2 December. The Digital Omnibus schedule places the transitional marking obligation on providers of pre-existing GPAI tools on 2 December 2026. EU regulations normally take effect on their stated application date unless Parliament, Council, and publication complete an amendment first. A late postponement prompted by implementation complaints would change this view, but the one-month window makes that procedurally difficult.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 95% — Whether the Digital Omnibus date of 2 Dec 2026 is postponed in the next four weeks. Only the Commission or co-legislators can still shift the marking-duty start; that process normally takes months, not days. EU secondary-act delays are common years out but rare once a calendar date is already in force and one month away. A published delay proposal or Council vote before 2 Dec would move the number; none is visible today.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 55% — Whether the Digital Omnibus actually passes in time to move the GPAI marking deadline to 2 December 2026. The AI Act's Article 50 marking duty for pre-existing GPAI models was set for 2 August 2026, then the Digital Omnibus proposal (Nov 2025) pushed it to 2 December 2026. The Digital Omnibus is still a Commission proposal; Parliament and Council must adopt it, and as of late 2025 the file is early in the ordinary legislative procedure. If the Omnibus stalls, the original 2 August 2026 date applies, not 2 December — so the statement's truth hinges on swift trilogue agreement within weeks.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 83% — Turns on whether the Digital Omnibus was formally adopted with this exact 2 December 2026 date for pre-existing genAI watermarking. The Digital Omnibus was proposed by the Commission but required Council and Parliament approval; if adopted, EU regulation dates are rarely shifted at the last minute. One month out, any implementing delay would already be publicly signaled by the Commission or member-state notifications; absence of such signals supports the date… A development that would lower this: a last-minute delegated act or Commission guidance deferring enforcement, which has precedent in AI Act transitional measures for…

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