The New York RAISE Act opens frontier AI developer registration in November 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 80% by 4 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

80% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-04.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 74% — Implementation hinges on NY's executive agency finalizing rulemaking portals on schedule without legislative delays. The statutory framework sets November 2026 onboarding ahead of January 2027 enforcement, keeping the state on a tight clock. State IT procurement and regulatory portal launches frequently face multi-week slippages, risking a delay past December 4. Confirmation of an active portal from the AG or lead agency before month-end would push probability above 90%.

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Claude (Anthropic): 68% — Hinges on NY regulators meeting their own statutory implementation timeline without delay or legal challenge. The RAISE Act's compliance structure requires registration infrastructure before January 2027 duties kick in, creating regulatory pressure to launch on schedule. State agencies often slip implementation deadlines by weeks to months, especially for novel registration systems with no precedent. Industry pushback or litigation challenging the Act's scope could delay portal launch, though no major court action is reported yet.

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GPT (OpenAI): 78% — This chiefly turns on whether the enacted law’s November registration trigger remains in force without a court stay or delay. The legislature and governor have already acted; implementation now rests largely with the designated state regulator before December 4. A one-to-two-month administrative opening is routine once statutory dates are set, though forms, guidance, or litigation can slip it. Comparable state AI rules often face rollout friction, but a court injunction or agency announcement postponing registration would sharply lower this.

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Grok (xAI): 82% — NY agencies must launch the RAISE registration portal sometime in the remaining 26 days of November. RAISE (enacted 2025) statutorily starts developer registration Nov 2026, so the Department of State or designated office only has to stand up a form, not full… State tech-reg first milestones hit on time ~65% of the time; this is a lighter lift than the Jan 2027 duties, so odds sit above that base. An official delay notice or portal outage after Nov 4 would collapse the forecast; none exists yet.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 88% — Whether New York's Department of Financial Services actually stands up the registration portal by its statutory November 2026 deadline. The RAISE Act (S6953B/A6453B, signed Dec 2025) sets a hard statutory date: covered frontier developers must register with DFS by November 2026, with compliance duties… DFS has been drafting implementing rules since early 2026 and the agency has a strong incentive to open registration on time, since the January 2027 compliance clock… Base rate for state agencies hitting first statutory deadlines in a brand-new regulatory regime is middling, but this one has a fixed downstream trigger and no federal…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 84% — The law's statutory date has arrived; the only risk is administrative delay or a late legal stay. The RAISE Act was signed into law with a fixed November 2026 registration trigger, and we are already four days into that month. No public reporting of a court injunction or emergency amendment suspending the registration window has surfaced as of early November 2026. Agency implementation delays of a few weeks are possible but uncommon for a statutory deadline this high-profile; a development like a DOJ preemption challenge would…

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