The EU AI Act's standalone Annex III high-risk compliance deadline changes from December 2, 2027.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 25% by 21 Sept 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

25% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-09-21.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 22% — Changing an enacted EU AI Act deadline requires a full trilogue amendment, which institutions resist unless industry bottlenecks break. Revising the December 2027 date needs Commission initiation and Council-Parliament approval, a process taking 12 to 18 months. EU regulatory delays happen (e.g. MDR, Deforestation), but the December 2027 date was already an extended compromise window. A catastrophic deficit in notified bodies by late 2026 is the primary trigger that would force DG CNECT to propose an extension.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Depends on whether the Commission and Parliament push through another delay amid ongoing implementation pressure and lobbying. The AI Act has already seen delay precedent (digital omnibus proposals pushed back deadlines before), showing amendment appetite exists. Changing an already-adjusted date within ~3 years requires Commission proposal plus Council/Parliament approval, a multi-year process that may not conclude by Sept 2029. Industry lobbying for further delays or simplification (especially around high-risk Annex III obligations) could trigger another omnibus-style amendment before 2027…

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 34% — A further postponement needs a Commission proposal and Parliament-Council agreement before September 2029. The EU has already shifted AI Act timing once, showing implementation pressure can overcome the original schedule. A 2027 deadline leaves roughly 21 months for another amending regulation, but trilogues and publication commonly take a year or more. I would raise this sharply if the Commission’s 2027 implementation review proposes a targeted Annex III delay.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — whether co-legislators pass another amending regulation postponing Annex III duties after 2026/1744 Commission already reset the date to 2 Dec 2027 in 2026/1744; any further shift requires a new ordinary-legislative-procedure act adopted before mid-2027. Successive postponements of EU digital-law application dates are rare (DSA/DMA held; GDPR never slipped twice). A transatlantic trade concession or collapse of the codes-of-practice process would be the clearest trigger for a second delay.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 62% — Whether the Digital Omnibus's proposed delay to Annex III high-risk rules actually clears trilogue before the 2027 deadline. The Commission's November 2025 Digital Omnibus proposed pushing Annex III high-risk obligations to December 2028, and Parliament and Council must agree before it binds. Precedent favors movement: the AI Act already saw a 2024-2025 delay push for general-purpose AI rules, and industry lobbying on standards readiness is intense. The main blocker is trilogue timing — if negotiations slip past mid-2027, the December 2, 2027 date stands by default, which is why I stay below 70.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 22% — Legislative inertia favors keeping the date, but Annex III scope disputes create real amendment pressure. The EU AI Act's own implementation timeline has already been amended once (Regulation 2026/1744 moved the original date), showing the mechanism exists but requires a… Annex III categories (employment, education, law enforcement) face lobbying from member states and industry for scope narrowing or deadline extension, but the European… Base rate for EU regulatory deadlines being postponed is moderate (~30-40% for complex tech rules), but the fact that 2026/1744 already reset the clock makes a second…

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