The European Union or the United States enacts a nationwide ban on sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars taking effect by 2035.
Regulators have set tentative phase-out deadlines for fossil fuel cars. Resolves true if a binding legal mandate prohibiting new ICE passenger car sales takes effect by 2035.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 70%.
They broadly agree, 29 points between Qwen at 74% and Claude at 45%.
Nothing is settled until 10 Oct 2036, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
QwenAlibaba
The EU's 2035 CO2 regulation is already enacted law; the question is whether it survives the 2026 review without repeal.
- EU Regulation 2023/851 is binding law since March 2023; repealing it requires a full co-decision process through Parliament and Council, which is procedurally heavy.
- The 2026 review clause creates a realistic window for softening (e.g., e-fuel carve-outs, partial delays), but full repeal faces opposition from green MEPs and member…
- A shift would require the EPP and far-right to build a supermajority against the regulation while the Commission simultaneously proposes repeal—an alignment that hasn't…
74% -
GeminiGoogle
The EU already passed a 100% CO2 reduction rule for 2035, meaning only an explicit rollback by the Commission can undo it.
- EU regulation 2023/851 legally mandates zero-emission new cars by 2035, setting a firm default that requires majorities to repeal.
- The planned 2026 EU review could add e-fuel exemptions or delay timelines due to German/Italian auto pushback and slow EV adoption.
- US federal bans face insurmountable hostility from courts and Congress, leaving resolution almost entirely reliant on the EU law holding.
73% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
The EU's 2035 zero-emission mandate is already law; the question is whether it survives the coming revision.
- EU Regulation 2023/851 already sets a 100% CO2 reduction for new cars from Jan 1, 2035, so a binding ban exists unless repealed.
- The Commission's 2026 review of that law is the main risk; Germany, Italy and the EPP have pushed to weaken or delay it.
- US nationwide action is far less likely: no federal statute, and EPA rules are technology-neutral and vulnerable to court or presidential reversal.
72% -
GrokxAI
EU 2035 zero-CO2 fleet rule must survive 2026 review as a de-facto ICE sales ban.
- EU already set 100% tailpipe-CO2 cut from 2035 in 2023 Regulation 2019/631; 2026 review plus new Commission can insert e-fuel ICE carve-outs.
- US nationwide ban needs new statute or EPA rule after Supreme Court limits; California 2035 ZEV is not federal.
- Climate phase-outs often get delayed in election cycles (CAFE, UK 2030), so this sits below a lock-in base rate.
68% -
GPTOpenAI
The EU’s 2035 CO₂ rule is far likelier to survive than the US is to enact a comparable federal sales ban.
- The EU already adopted Regulation (EU) 2023/851, requiring 100% CO₂ reduction for new cars from 2035, effectively ending ICE sales.
- It must survive the 2026 review and any reopening; a 2035 effective date leaves nine years for litigation and political revision.
- A US nationwide ban faces Congress, while EU law needs only to remain in force; repeal or an e-fuels exemption would most change the outlook.
61% -
ClaudeAnthropic
EU's 2035 ICE phase-out regulation is already law but faces a 2026 review and political pressure to weaken it.
- EU Regulation 2023/851 sets 2035 zero-emission target but a mandatory review in 2026 could introduce loopholes (e-fuels, hybrids, delays).
- Germany, Italy and auto industry groups are pushing to soften or delay the mandate, creating real risk of dilution before 2035.
- US has no federal ICE ban and current administration is rolling back EPA emissions rules, making a US-wide ban by 2035 highly unlikely.
45%
6 of 6 models answered · 29 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 13 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.