The US announces the end, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 31, 2026.
Following a reinstated naval blockade against Iranian shipping, resolution requires an official US government announcement terminating or suspending the operation.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They broadly agree, 27 points between GPT at 31% and DeepSeek at 4%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 35%, so the models are 23 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -23 pts
- Moved this week
- -6 pts
- Since we asked
- +2 pts
- Volume
- $1.4M
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 12% against 35%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether Washington gets a near-term Iran deal or chooses de-escalation before the blockade becomes entrenched policy.
- The White House or an authorized agency must issue a public, general cessation by October 31, leaving roughly six weeks.
- Blockades usually end through a ceasefire, negotiated concession, or unsustainable escalation; none is automatic on this timetable.
- A verified Iran-US agreement, or a major shipping crisis drawing allied opposition, would sharply raise the odds.
31% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Depends on US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough or major policy shift before Oct 31, 2026.
- No sign of negotiations progressing enough to justify lifting the blockade within this ~6-week window.
- Sanctions/blockade actions historically persist for years absent a deal, and Trump has shown willingness to escalate rather than retreat.
- A sudden nuclear deal, regime change signal, or major diplomatic concession from Iran would flip this quickly.
22% -
GrokxAI
A six-week diplomatic breakthrough that Trump publicly frames as victory.
- Trump or an authorized official must announce a general cease of interdiction by 31 Oct; CENTCOM ops continue unless ordered otherwise.
- Blockades and maritime sanctions historically last many months; July 13 restart is only eight weeks old with no ceasefire talks reported.
- A verified Iran concession on enrichment or shipping would flip this; absent that, political sunk-cost and escalation risk keep it in place.
12% -
QwenAlibaba
A naval blockade is a coercive tool; lifting it requires Iran to concede something Trump can sell as victory, which is unlikely in 6 weeks.
- Blockades are imposed to extract concessions; no public framework for a US-Iran deal exists as of mid-September 2026.
- Trump's pattern (tariffs, sanctions) is to maintain leverage until a deal is announced, not to lift pressure unilaterally.
- A sudden ceasefire or backchannel deal could shift this, but 6 weeks is a very short window for such a negotiation to conclude.
12% -
GeminiGoogle
Lifting the blockade requires an unprecedented diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran inside an extremely tight six-week window.
- The White House reimposed maritime pressure in July 2026 and rarely reverses major coercive economic measures within two months.
- Iran has shown no willingness to offer rapid concessions on nuclear or regional posture that would justify an official suspension.
- A direct Iranian military clash or backdoor ceasefire announcement brokered via Oman represents the only plausible path to a swift halt.
8% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This hinges on Trump reversing a blockade he personally announced ten weeks ago, with no off-ramp or deal on the table.
- The blockade barricades Iran's oil exports at a moment when Washington wants maximum pressure, so lifting requires a strategic reversal no actor is pushing for before…
- Trump personally announced the reinstatement on July 13, 2026; only he or a cabinet-level surrogate can terminate it, and no such announcement is scheduled or rumored.
- Historical precedent cuts the other way: once the US imposes a naval blockade, it typically persists for years—Cuba since 1962, North Korea sanctions since 1950s—so a…
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 27 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unan
Question sourced from Polymarket on 17 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.