The US announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by September 21, 2026.
Following the US naval blockade instituted in July 2026, this resolves Yes if US officials publicly announce its termination or suspension by September 21.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 7%.
They broadly agree, 14 points between GPT at 18% and Gemini at 4%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 1%, so the models are 6 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 22 Sept 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +6 pts
- Moved this week
- -12 pts
- Since we asked
- -5 pts
- Volume
- $1.2M
The models are slightly more confident than traders risking real money: 7% against 1%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether Trump accepts a near-term de-escalation deal rather than preserving blockade leverage.
- The White House or an authorized US official must issue an explicit general suspension by September 21, leaving only five days.
- Blockades are usually lifted after a negotiated concession or acute escalation; neither can reliably be completed in days.
- A verified Iran-US ceasefire or shipping-access deal announced this week would sharply raise the chance.
18% -
QwenAlibaba
Trump's blockade is a pressure tool; 5 days is too short for a deal but not for a tactical pause.
- The blockade was announced July 13 as leverage; lifting it requires either a deal or a face-saving concession from Iran, neither of which is publicly visible as of…
- Five days is insufficient to negotiate and announce a comprehensive agreement, though a unilateral suspension tied to a minor concession or humanitarian framing is…
- Historically, US naval blockades (Cuba 1962, Yemen 2015) lasted weeks to months; a 2-month duration ending abruptly without a visible deal would be unusual.
12% -
GrokxAI
Five days left after a July 13 Trump-ordered blockade makes an official end announcement vanishingly unlikely.
- White House, Pentagon or State would have to issue a public termination/suspension of interdiction of Iranian and customer vessels by 23:59 ET 21 Sep.
- Blockades of this type historically last months-to-years; two-month duration plus no ceasefire or deal reported sits far below that base rate.
- Only a sudden Iran capitulation or congressional/court halt would flip this; none is visible in the remaining window.
8% -
ClaudeAnthropic
No sign of imminent US-Iran deal or policy reversal within the next 6 days.
- Blockade only 2 months old and Trump admin has shown no public intent to lift it before Sept 21.
- Ending a major sanctions/military action this fast with no reported diplomatic breakthrough would be unusual.
- A sudden nuclear or ceasefire deal announcement is the main thing that could flip this, but no evidence points that way.
6% -
GeminiGoogle
Five days is far too narrow a window for a major coercive maritime posture to be negotiated away or abruptly abandoned.
- A formal lift requires high-level diplomatic concessions or geopolitical de-escalation that typically takes months to finalize.
- The White House rarely rolls back high-visibility executive deterrence operations without a comprehensive face-saving deal.
- A sudden unilateral capitulation by Tehran within 120 hours is the only scenario that triggers an immediate public termination.
4% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Only Trump can lift a blockade he personally announced ten weeks ago, and nothing forces his hand before September 22.
- The blockade began July 13, 2026 by Trump's own announcement, so reversal requires the same principal to publicly walk it back within days.
- No sanctions relief, court order, or congressional deadline compels termination; prior US-Iran standoffs (2019 tanker seizures, 2020 Soleimani) ran months without formal…
- Base rate for a US president publicly ending a naval blockade within ~10 weeks of starting it is near zero absent a deal or military loss.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 14 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unan
Question sourced from Polymarket on 16 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.