The US announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by December 31, 2026.
Following the US naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping, this resolves if the US officially declares the blockade terminated or lifted.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 21%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 58% and DeepSeek at 12%, 46 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 60%, so the models are 39 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -39 pts
- Moved this week
- -4 pts
- Since we asked
- 0 pts
- Volume
- $1.9M
The models are sharply less confident than traders risking real money: 21% against 60%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether Washington gets a deal or faces untenable escalation costs before the year-end deadline.
- The White House or an authorized U.S. official must issue a general lifting or suspension announcement by December 31.
- A blockade begun July 13 is still early; maritime coercion often ends through talks, exemptions, or a declared policy shift.
- A durable Iranian escalation, allied shipping backlash, or verified nuclear concession would most alter the outlook.
58% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Depends on whether US-Iran tensions de-escalate enough for Trump to declare a diplomatic win and lift the blockade.
- Blockades tied to geopolitical leverage often persist or escalate rather than being formally lifted within months.
- Trump administration has shown willingness to reverse policy abruptly if a deal or ceasefire emerges, raising odds above a static baseline.
- No current indication of negotiations progressing toward lifting; absent a deal by year-end 2026, blockade likely continues.
30% -
GeminiGoogle
Lifting a high-stakes maritime enforcement operation within months requires a diplomatic breakthrough that Iran currently resists.
- The White House faces little domestic pressure to unilaterally stand down before securing concessions on enrichment or proxies.
- With barely three months until year-end 2026, formal negotiations are far too slow to reach an off-ramp agreement.
- A catastrophic escalation or a secret bilateral deal trading oil flow for enrichment freezes would quickly reverse this posture.
23% -
GrokxAI
Trump lifting a two-month-old blockade before year-end requires a rapid Iran concession or deal.
- He reinstated it 13 July 2026 as leverage; three months is too short for Tehran to fold or for a nuclear/oil pact.
- US Iran pressure tools (sanctions, interdictions) historically last years, not quarters, absent a 2015-style JCPOA.
- A sudden ceasefire, Strait-of-Hormuz de-escalation, or oil-price shock forcing a public lift would move the odds.
18% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Requires Trump to reverse a blockade he reinstated four months ago with no deal on the table.
- The blockade dates only to July 2026, and no negotiated off-ramp (Iran nuclear talks, Gulf shipping deal) is scheduled before year-end.
- Trump's pattern is escalation followed by transactional pauses, not formal termination — sanctions relief historically takes 12-24 months, if ever.
- Highest-probability trigger is a narrow humanitarian or tanker-corridor suspension, which likely wouldn't satisfy the 'generally cease' criterion.
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Trump would need a diplomatic breakthrough or domestic pressure strong enough to reverse a policy he just announced two months ago.
- The blockade was announced July 13, 2026—only ~2.5 months before resolution; presidents rarely reverse signature national-security actions that quickly without a major…
- Iran has no history of capitulating to maximum-pressure campaigns within months; the 2018-2019 sanctions campaign lasted years without lifting, and the JCPOA took 20…
- A deal would require Iran to publicly agree to verifiable nuclear limits or similar concessions, which Khamenei's regime has resisted even under far more severe economic…
12%
6 of 6 models answered · 46 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unan
Question sourced from Polymarket on 18 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.