United Russia wins the greatest number of party list votes in every federal subject in the 2026 Russian legislative election.
Legislative elections are scheduled for September 2026. The question resolves if United Russia finishes first in the party list vote across every single federal subject.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 77%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 94% and Claude at 30%, 64 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 96%, so the models are 19 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Oct 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -19 pts
- Moved this week
- +34 pts
- Volume
- $820K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 77% against 96%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether any opposition list can top United Russia in a single separately reported federal subject.
- The CEC’s September 20 count is already imminent, and authorities control registration, media access, and election administration.
- United Russia led the party-list vote in all 85 recognized regions in 2021; system-wide sweeps are therefore the relevant base rate.
- A competitive protest region or an anomalous tally in Moscow, St Petersburg, or a new annexed territory would most change this view.
94% -
GrokxAI
Official CEC regional tallies after the 20 Sep vote show UR first everywhere.
- Kremlin and CEC control counting and can pad UR totals in every subject.
- 2021 UR topped the list in all reported subjects; 2016 missed none of note.
- Only an unfixable local revolt or public CEC discrepancy would produce a No.
82% -
QwenAlibaba
United Russia dominates everywhere, but 89 federal subjects means even one upset region sinks this.
- In 2021, United Russia won the party list in every federal subject, but margins in some regions (e.g., Khabarovsk Krai, where LDPR won in 2021) were razor-thin or lost.
- Khabarovsk Krai is the key risk: LDPR won the party list there in 2021 (~25% vs ~22% for UR), and LDPR's regional base remains strong under Governor Degtyarev's legacy.
- The Kremlin's ability to manage results is high but not absolute across all 89 subjects simultaneously; a single regional protest vote or administrative miscalculation…
82% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether United Russia can hold its party-list lead in every federal subject, especially the Far East and ethnic republics.
- United Russia has swept every federal subject's party-list vote in recent Duma elections, but its 2021 margin was thin in a handful of regions.
- In 2021 it lost the party-list lead in no region, yet in Khabarovsk Krai and parts of Siberia its share fell near or below 30%, with CPRF competitive.
- The 2026 election is being held under wartime conditions with new electronic voting and a compressed campaign, which typically boosts the incumbent's administrative…
72% -
GeminiGoogle
Sweeping all 89 federal subjects requires zero protest slip-ups against strong CPRF red belts like Yakutia, Khabarovsk, or Nenets.
- In 2021, the Communist Party defeated United Russia on the party list in four subjects: Yakutia, Khabarovsk, Nenets, and Mari El.
- While administrative control and electronic voting have expanded post-2022, regional protest voting historically yields outliers.
- A coordinated boycott or overwhelming electronic-voting mandate across all regions would push this probability above 60%.
37% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Turns on whether UR again loses one or two ethnic-republic/regional strongholds like in 2021.
- In 2021 UR won party-list plurality in nearly all regions but reportedly lost a few (e.g. some reports of Communist wins in specific subjects) depending on counting…
- Authoritarian dominance and administrative control make a sweep plausible, but historically a handful of regions (Communist-leaning industrial areas, some republics)…
- Any single regional loss to LDPR/CPRF/local party flips this to No, and 85 regions gives many chances for one outlier.
30%
6 of 6 models answered · 64 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution. If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve
Question sourced from Polymarket on 21 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.