The Bank of England raises its policy rate at its next scheduled decision.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 15% by 27 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

15% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-27.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 8% — The MPC's next move is far more likely to be a hold or a cut rather than an outright tightening cycle resumption. Global and UK headline inflation trends lean toward gradual cooling, leaving the bar for a surprise rate hike extremely high. The 9-member MPC requires a 5-vote majority to hike, which would require an acute, unexpected domestic wage-inflation shock. A massive upside shock in monthly CPI services before the November meeting would be the only trigger to prompt an emergency hike.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 6% — BOE's easing bias and cooling UK inflation trajectory make a hike highly unlikely at the next meeting. MPC has been on a cutting/holding path through 2025-26 with inflation expected to moderate, not a hiking cycle. Base rate for a G7 central bank reversing from hold to hike in one meeting without a fresh inflation shock is very low, under 10%. A sharp upside inflation surprise or sterling crisis before the next meeting would be the main thing that could flip this.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 22% — It turns chiefly on whether autumn inflation and wage data force the MPC to reverse its September pause at the next meeting. The nine-member MPC must secure a majority at its next scheduled decision, likely in early November, after holding in September. Immediate post-pause hikes are uncommon unless inflation or pay data materially reaccelerate; a September warning raises, but does not dominate, that base rate. An upside CPI or average-earnings surprise before the meeting, especially services inflation, would substantially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 32% — November MPC hike turns on whether Oct/Nov CPI prints stay sticky enough to override the Sept hold. MPC meets 5-6 Nov 2026; only two CPI releases and one labour-market print remain before the vote. Post-hold hikes are rare (last was 2022) unless inflation re-accelerates >0.3 pp; the Sept hawkish minutes lift odds modestly above that base. A sub-2.5% Oct CPI or weaker wage data would collapse the case; a 3%+ print would make a hike the modal outcome.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 12% — A hike needs an inflation shock between now and the November MPC; the September hold and softening data point the other way. The MPC voted 7-2 to hold in September, with the dissenters preferring a cut, not a hike, so the committee's center of gravity is below the current rate. UK CPI has been drifting toward target and wage growth is cooling, which removes the trigger the BOE itself said would justify tightening. A single upside inflation surprise in the October print, or a sterling-driven import-price spike, is the main path to a hike, and that is a narrow tail.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 18% — The MPC held in September and needs a sharp upside inflation surprise in one data print to reverse course by November. The MPC held in September; a hike at the very next meeting requires a dramatic shift in the data or a pre-commitment signal, neither of which is present. UK CPI would need to print well above forecast in the October release to move a majority of nine members from hold to hike in ~6 weeks. Base rate for consecutive-meeting reversals from hold to hike without explicit forward guidance is low, historically under 15%.

The Bank of England raises its policy rate at its next scheduled decision.

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its next scheduled policy decision.

The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate at its October 28-29, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank raises interest rates at its October 30, 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 2026 meeting.