The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate at its October 28-29, 2026 meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 20% by 27 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

20% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-27.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 38% — Hikes require persistent core inflation reigniting alongside strong labor data over the next four weeks. The FOMC requires broad consensus before hiking late in a cycle, usually favoring pauses or gradual easing barring major shocks. September CPI and payrolls must both deliver significant upside surprises to compel Powell to move before the December meeting. A hot September core PCE print above 0.35% m/m would flip the committee from holding to actively hiking.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 6% — Fed hiking after a cutting cycle would require a sharp inflation surprise, which is unlikely by late October 2026. Fed has been in an easing/cutting posture through 2025-2026, reversing to a hike requires major inflation resurgence not yet visible. Base rate for a hike at any single meeting during a non-hiking cycle is very low, historically under 5-10%. Watch for hot CPI/PCE prints or labor market overheating between now and late October that could shift Fed rhetoric hawkish.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — An October hike needs incoming inflation or labor data to force a reversal from the Fed’s current hold/cut bias. The 12 voting FOMC participants would need to lift the target range on October 28-29, only four weeks after the September meeting. At late-cycle meetings, the Fed more often holds than hikes; a second-half hike usually follows a clear inflation reacceleration. A September hold paired with hotter September CPI or payrolls would materially raise the odds, while a cut would make an October hike remote.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 38% — Oct FOMC hike turns on whether Sep/Oct CPI and payrolls stay hot enough to override slowing growth. FOMC votes Oct 28-29; SEP already showed a higher path, so they hike only if data cooperates before then. Base rate for a hike when traders are split is ~30%; hawkish dots lift this case modestly above that. A soft jobs print or CPI undershoot in early October would most shift odds down.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 9% — A hike needs a data shock big enough to override a Fed that has been easing, in the one meeting before the election. The FOMC cut in September 2026 and its dot plot implies further cuts, so a hike requires a full reversal of the committee's stated reaction function. Between now and October 29 there is only one CPI and one jobs report; a hike would need core inflation re-accelerating above 4% or payrolls blowing past 250k. Base rate for a Fed hiking at the meeting immediately after cutting is near zero in modern history; 1994 is the only comparable pivot and it followed a year of hikes…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 22% — The Fed almost never hikes after pausing; a late-2026 hike requires an inflation reacceleration that current data doesn't yet confirm. Since 2006, the Fed has never raised rates at a meeting following a hold without a prior tightening cycle resumption; the bar is extremely high. If inflation has been trending toward 2% through mid-2026, the FOMC would need a sharp, sustained upside surprise in Q3 data to justify a hike by late October. A reacceleration scenario (e.g., tariff pass-through, energy shock) is plausible but would need to be visible in September CPI and employment data released before the…

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