The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its next scheduled policy decision.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 29% by 27 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

29% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-27.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 18% — The BOJ rarely executes back-to-back hikes, preferring quarterly forecast updates and time to absorb market volatility. Governor Ueda historically pauses between moves to assess currency impact, bond yield stability, and wage-price pass-through. Following a September hike, the October meeting offers too narrow a window to observe macro transmission before acting again. A rapid yen collapse past 160 per dollar before late October represents the sole catalyst likely to force an immediate move.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 30% — Turns on inflation/wage data momentum and yen weakness pressure into the next BOJ meeting after the Sept 18 hike. BOJ typically pauses at least one meeting after a hike to assess impact, so back-to-back hikes are less common historically. Yen depreciation and sticky core inflation could push BOJ to act faster if wage negotiations (shunto) show strong momentum by year-end. Global central bank easing cycles and any yen stabilization would reduce urgency, favoring a hold at the next meeting.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 37% — It hinges on whether inflation and wages stay firm enough for the BOJ to risk another move after September's hike. The Policy Board must vote for a further increase at its next scheduled meeting, likely in late October or December 2026. Successive BOJ hikes are uncommon: officials typically pause to assess yen, wages, consumption, and market stress after tightening. A sharp yen fall or stronger-than-expected wage and core inflation data would materially raise the odds of a follow-up hike.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 18% — Whether BOJ hikes again ~6 weeks after the 18 Sep 2026 move. Next decision is the late-Oct 2026 meeting; consecutive hikes have almost never occurred in the post-YCC era. BOJ still spaces moves by quarters unless CPI and wages both overshoot; Sept hike already priced a gradual path. A surprise 3%+ core CPI print or yen collapse below 160 would flip this; otherwise they hold.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 38% — The BOJ has already hiked in September; a second consecutive move depends on yen weakness and wage data holding up. The BOJ's next scheduled meeting is around late October 2026, and Governor Ueda has signaled a gradual, data-dependent pace rather than back-to-back hikes. Core CPI has been above 2% for over three years, but the BOJ typically waits for shunto wage negotiations and sustained demand-driven inflation before tightening again. The September hike was the first in months, and historically the BOJ has paused at least one meeting after a move; a sharp yen depreciation past 160/USD would most…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 27% — BOJ's next meeting is late October; a hike requires yen weakness or wage data to accelerate beyond current trajectory. The BOJ hiked Sept 18 but Ueda has signaled data-dependence; consecutive hikes are rare—only 2 of 7 tightening cycles since 1989 saw back-to-back moves. Core CPI has been trending down from 2024 peaks and the yen has stabilized, removing the urgency that drove the Sept hike. A sharp yen drop below 160 or a surprise upside in the Oct Tankan would be the main catalyst to flip this to >50.

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its next scheduled policy decision.

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The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate at its October 28-29, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank raises interest rates at its October 30, 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 2026 meeting.