The Bank of England raises the Bank Rate to 4.00% at its November 2026 policy meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 15% by 3 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

15% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-03.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 12% — Pinpointing a single MPC hike to exactly 4.00% depends on a specific, non-consensus macroeconomic rebound timing. The 9-member MPC requires sustained upside inflation surprises to reverse easing cycles, which base rates show occurs under 15% of the time. BNP Paribas represents an outlier house view against broader market pricing that favors a flat terminal rate near 3.50% to 3.75%. A sharp surge in UK services inflation and wage growth above 5% by mid-2026 would dramatically increase the likelihood of this hike.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 10% — BoE has been in a cutting cycle; a hike to 4.00% would require a sharp inflation surprise before Nov 2026. Current rate path and market pricing through 2025-26 point toward cuts/holds, not hikes, as inflation has been easing toward target. A single bank forecast (BNP Paribas) for an 'insurance hike' is an outlier view, not consensus among MPC members or markets. For this to resolve true, inflation data and wage growth would need to surprise materially upward in the months before the Nov 2026 meeting.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — It hinges on whether inflation or expectations re-accelerate enough to overcome the MPC’s easing bias within one meeting. The nine-member MPC must vote for a 25bp rise at its November meeting, with the decision due by 3 December. Late-cycle central banks rarely reverse to hikes after easing unless inflation data or wage growth delivers a clear upside shock. A sharp October CPI/services-inflation surprise or sterling sell-off would materially raise the chance of an insurance hike.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 22% — MPC must vote a 25bp hike from 3.75% at the 5 Nov 2026 meeting. Decision is locked to that single MPC vote; no later meeting counts. Late-cycle insurance hikes are rare (last was 2022); BNP is an outlier vs consensus easing. CPI/wage prints due before the meeting could flip the vote if they surprise higher.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — This turns on whether the MPC judges inflation sticky enough to hike into a slowing economy at its 5 November 2026 meeting. The MPC sets Bank Rate at its 5 November meeting, with the decision and minutes published same day; markets currently price a hold near 3.75%. A hike needs CPI services and wage growth to have re-accelerated in the October data, which lands just days before the meeting. Base rate for a single 25bp hike at a meeting markets don't price is roughly 10-15%; BNP's call and any upside inflation surprise push this modestly above that.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 9% — A single-bank forecast of an 'insurance hike' against a BoE that has been easing; MPC majority is the binding constraint. BNP Paribas is one voice; MPC requires 5 of 9 votes, and consensus likely still leans hold or cut at 3.75%. The BoE has not reversed a cutting cycle with a hike absent a clear inflation shock since 2021–22; 'insurance hike' framing signals this is a tail call. A upside CPI surprise in the October release (due ~Nov 12) would be the one data point that could shift MPC votes toward this outcome.

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