The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark policy rate in December 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 33% by 1 Feb 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

33% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-02-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 38% — The Fed requires decisive upside inflation data in late 2026 to abort its easing stance and resume hiking rates. The FOMC meets December 15-16, 2026, and switching from a pause or cut cycle to a hike typically requires core PCE persistently above 3%. Base rate of the Fed pivoting to hikes within a single quarter without an acute supply shock is under 15% historically. A November CPI print substantially beating consensus alongside nonfarm payrolls over 250k would be required to tip the committee.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 4% — Fed is widely expected to be cutting or holding, not hiking, given 2026 easing cycle trajectory. Fed has been in a cutting/pausing cycle through 2025-2026 amid labor market softness, not a hiking posture. Market pricing and Fed communications as of late 2026 show no indication of a hawkish pivot to rate hikes. A hike would require a sharp inflation resurgence or wage-price spiral materializing within weeks, which isn't signaled.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 29% — It turns on whether inflation or labor data force the FOMC to abandon its likely hold-or-ease bias before Dec. 2026. The 12-member FOMC must approve an increase at its December meeting, with the next two inflation and jobs reports pivotal. December hikes occur, but are uncommon outside clear tightening cycles; markets generally price policy moves before the meeting. A sharp upside CPI/PCE surprise or reaccelerating payrolls would raise the odds most; weak growth would make a hold more likely.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 37% — Turns on the mid-December 2026 FOMC vote after November CPI, PCE and jobs data. FOMC must raise the funds-rate target at its 15-16 Dec meeting; no other December action counts. November inflation and labor prints must show reacceleration first; sticky-price data historically precede hikes. December hikes are rare outside active tightening cycles (base ~15%); current market pricing lifts this case, but a sub-100k jobs print would drop odds sharply.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Whether the FOMC's December 2026 dot plot shifts from hold to hike hinges on inflation staying sticky through the November CPI print. The FOMC's December 8-9, 2026 meeting is the only window; a hike requires a majority of 12 voters, and the SEP dot plot must shift up from the current hold stance. Core PCE has run near 2.6-2.8% through 2026, above target, so the bar to hike is lower than in 2024-25 when inflation was falling toward 2%. Since 1990 the Fed has hiked at a December meeting only in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 — roughly 4 of 36 Decembers, a base rate near 11%.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 37% — A December hike requires inflation to have re-accelerated enough to override the Fed's recent easing bias. The Fed has hiked in December before (2015-2018) but only after sustained tightening signals; 'positioned for a potential' is far from a committed forward-guidance… If the FOMC were truly committed, Fed speakers would be using firmer language by early November; the hedged framing suggests the data hasn't yet forced their hand. A re-acceleration strong enough to justify a hike after a cutting cycle would need multiple hot CPI prints in Oct-Nov, which would likely shift market pricing from…

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