The European Central Bank increases its deposit rate by 25 basis points in December 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 63% by 1 Feb 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

63% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-02-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 68% — The decision hinges on flash November HICP data matching consensus expectations rather than showing an unexpected disinflationary drop. With the December Governing Council meeting just six weeks away, central banks rarely deviate from heavily signaled baseline calls. A sharper-than-expected euro-area growth slowdown or an abrupt slide in core inflation below 2% would prompt a pause instead. Central banks deliver on consensus pricing a month out roughly 70% of the time, making an exact 25 bps adjustment the clear default.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Hinges on whether Eurozone inflation/growth data by Dec 2026 justify ECB restarting hikes after a long hold. ECB has held deposit rate near 2% through much of 2026 given subdued inflation, so a hike requires a clear inflation surprise. Base rate for a single-meeting 25bp hike after an extended pause is low absent strong data; markets currently lean toward hold or gradual normalization. A sharp upside inflation print (energy, wages) between now and December would be the main catalyst to raise this probability.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — It turns on whether incoming inflation and wage data keep a December quarter-point hike preferable to holding at 2.50%. The Governing Council must approve the move at its 16–17 December meeting, leaving about six weeks for November data to shape it. Quarter-point changes are the ECB’s standard adjustment size, and a 25 bp hike has a clear analyst-consensus path to 2.75%. A sharp downside surprise in euro-area inflation, growth, or labor data before the meeting would most likely convert the expected hike into a hold.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — Whether incoming HICP, wage and growth data still justify a 25bp hike at the 17 Dec 2026 Governing Council. The Council must vote a 25bp deposit-facility increase at its mid-December meeting; no other body can deliver it. Base rate: ECB has delivered the priced 25bp move in ~70% of similar late-cycle windows since 2011, but November data can still flip the call. A sharp Q4 growth miss or energy-price spike would most quickly reverse the current analyst consensus.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 34% — Turns on whether ECB inflation stays sticky enough to force a hike at the Dec 16-17, 2026 Governing Council meeting. The ECB's deposit rate sits at 2.50% after 2025 cuts; a hike requires the Governing Council to reverse course, which it has not signaled. Eurozone inflation has hovered near 2% through 2026, and the ECB's own projections show it at target, removing the main trigger for tightening. Base rate for a G10 central bank hiking within 12 months of its last cut is roughly 15-20%; sticky services inflation or a weak euro could push this above that, but…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 82% — Consensus is clear ~5 weeks out; ECB rarely deviates from well-telegraphed moves this close to a decision. When OIS pricing and analyst consensus converge on a specific ECB move 4-6 weeks ahead, the Governing Council follows through roughly 85-90% of the time. A surprise would require a sharp data shift (e.g., inflation or growth miss) or a geopolitical shock between now and the Dec 18 meeting. The ECB under Lagarde has occasionally broken expectations (e.g., Oct 2024 cut timing), but those were closer calls, not unanimous consensus.

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