The Bank of Japan raises its policy rate in December 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 50% by 1 Feb 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

50% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-02-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 38% — The decision turns on whether yen depreciation and wage growth force Governor Ueda to hike before the January outlook report. The Bank of Japan policy board convenes mid-December 2026, but historically prefers January meetings for fresh quarterly projections. A single specific meeting hike sits well below 50% given Ueda's cautious pacing and political sensitivity over growth. Sharp JPY weakening past 155 per dollar through late November would be the primary trigger pushing the board to act immediately.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 33% — Hinges on BOJ's December 2026 meeting and whether inflation/yen trends force a hike versus holding into 2027. BOJ has moved gradually, often pausing after prior hikes, so any single meeting carries meaningful but not majority odds. Analysts flag December as a live possibility but consensus likely splits between December and January/early-2027 timing. Yen weakness or above-target inflation data in Nov-Dec would be the key trigger that could push this probability higher.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — December action chiefly hinges on wage-and-inflation data keeping the BOJ confident that 2% inflation is durable. The nine-member Policy Board must approve a move at its December 2026 meeting, leaving roughly seven weeks for incoming data. BOJ hikes have been infrequent, but normalization since 2024 and banks’ late-2026 calls put this above the usual meeting-level base rate. A sharp yen appreciation, weaker wage outlook, or downside inflation surprise before the meeting would materially reduce the chance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 42% — Dec 18-19 Board majority on wage-price data after Nov CPI/Tankan. Ueda needs 5/9 votes; only one more meeting after Oct, so Dec is last 2026 slot. Hikes have been 1-2/year since 2024 exit; this sits near that base unless yen weakens further. A sub-2% core CPI print or Tankan capex drop would most shift odds down.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 58% — Whether yen weakness and sticky inflation force Ueda's hand at the Dec 18-19 MPM. Ueda has signaled readiness to hike if wage-price dynamics hold; December 18-19 MPM is the last window before the fiscal year turns. Base rate: BOJ hiked in Dec 2024 and Jan 2025, but skipped Dec 2025; a hike requires yen weakness or inflation overshoot to persist through November CPI. Most likely blocker is a yen rally or softer Q3 GDP revision; a sustained USD/JPY above 155 into mid-December would flip me toward 75.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 64% — BOJ's gradual normalization path and market consensus point toward a hike, but the bank has a record of dovish surprises. The BOJ has been on a slow but steady hiking cycle since March 2024, and investment banks projecting a December hike signals strong market expectation. December meetings coincide with the Tankan release and Outlook Report, making it a natural window for the BOJ to act when conditions permit. The main risk is a dovish surprise from weak domestic demand or external shocks—similar to the pause after the July 2024 hike—which would push this below 50%.

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