The US publicly announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by November 30, 2026.
Following the US reinstatement of a naval blockade on Iranian vessels in July 2026, this requires an official announcement terminating, lifting, or suspending the blockade by the end of November 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 11%.
They broadly agree, 14 points between GPT at 22% and Gemini at 8%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 27%, so the models are 16 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -16 pts
- Moved this week
- +5 pts
- Volume
- $651K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 11% against 27%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
A formal end depends on a White House decision to trade coercive leverage for a deal within the next month.
- Only Trump or an authorized US agency must issue a public, general cessation notice before November 30.
- Blockades are usually lifted after a verified agreement or acute escalation; six weeks is a short window absent a deal.
- A signed US-Iran ceasefire or sanctions package with shipping guarantees would sharply raise the odds.
22% -
GrokxAI
A four-month-old Trump naval blockade of Iran is extremely unlikely to be publicly lifted in the next 32 days.
- Trump or an authorized US official must issue an explicit termination/suspension statement by 23:59 ET 30 Nov; no such talks are even rumored.
- Historical US maritime interdictions (Iraq 1990-2003, Cuba) lasted years, not months, absent a signed deal or regime collapse.
- Only a sudden Iran-US nuclear/ceasefire pact would move the odds; none is on any calendar before December.
12% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Only a US-Iran deal or military de-escalation would end the blockade, and neither is on the table before December.
- The blockade began July 13, 2026, and in the four months since, no US official has signaled any intent to lift it; the administration has instead framed it as leverage.
- Iran would need to make concessions on enrichment or regional proxies that satisfy Washington, and even a framework deal would take weeks of negotiation plus an…
- Historical precedent: US naval blockades (Cuba 1962, Haiti 1994) lasted months to years and ended only with a formal diplomatic resolution or regime change, neither of…
12% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether Trump administration sees diplomatic opening with Iran before Dec 1, 2026.
- No public signs of US-Iran de-escalation talks that would prompt lifting the blockade within this narrow one-month window.
- Blockades tied to sanctions pressure campaigns typically persist for many months absent a deal, and none appears imminent.
- A sudden nuclear deal or major Iranian concession before Nov 30 would flip this, but no evidence points that way.
10% -
QwenAlibaba
Would require a sudden Trump-Iran deal or strategic reversal with no visible diplomatic groundwork in the remaining ~32 days.
- Trump's maximum-pressure campaigns (2018-2020 sanctions, 2025 strikes) have historically been sustained for years, not reversed within months, unless a deal is announced…
- No credible reporting of back-channel negotiations or Iranian concessions that would give Trump a narrative to justify lifting a blockade imposed only 3.5 months ago.
- The one scenario that would spike this: a surprise Trump-Iran summit or nuclear framework announcement, but no logistical signals of such an event are visible at this…
9% -
GeminiGoogle
Lifting a major naval interdiction campaign within one month without a major diplomatic breakthrough is exceptionally rare.
- The administration only has roughly 30 days to negotiate terms, draft de-escalation protocols, and formally stand down naval ops.
- Maximalist enforcement policies historically persist for many months or years rather than collapsing abruptly in under four months.
- Only a sudden bilateral maritime agreement or catastrophic domestic political shift would trigger an announcement by November 30.
8%
6 of 6 models answered · 14 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unan
Question sourced from Polymarket on 29 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.