THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
6 questions in Consumer Tech. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
10Y
24 Oct 2036
A fault-tolerant quantum computer demonstrates commercial quantum advantage before 2032.
17%
AI
10Y
10 Oct 2036
Commercial desktop quantum computers become available for direct consumer purchase before 2035.
4%
AI
10Y
10 Oct 2036
Quantum computers demonstrate mainstream commercial advantage over classical computers before 2032.
20%
AI
10Y
24 Sept 2036
A general-purpose quantum computer is made publicly available for direct consumer purchase before 2035.
4%
AI
10Y
16 Sept 2036
A quantum computer successfully cracks a standard 256-bit elliptic-curve private key before 2035.
6%
AI
10Y
16 Sept 2036
A fault-tolerant quantum computer is made commercially available before 2032.
24%
AI