Iran and Oman announce a diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic by September 30, 2026.
Regional negotiations seek to secure navigation safety in critical waterways. Resolves as yes if an official bilateral agreement or treaty governing Hormuz transit is announced between Iran and Oman before October 2026.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 6%.
They broadly agree, 10 points between DeepSeek at 12% and Gemini at 2%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 0%, so the models are 6 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome.
It did not happen. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It didn't happen.
Settled by Polymarket: “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?” resolved NO.
Settled by the exchange The prediction market this came from paid out on this outcome. Real money, with a formal dispute window — the strongest evidence available here.
The market that settled it asked: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
- AI edge
- +6 pts
- Moved this week
- -4 pts
- Since we asked
- -20 pts
- Volume
- $809K
The models are slightly more confident than traders risking real money: 6% against 0%.
What each one said
-
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Only 17 days left; no announced bilateral Hormuz transit deal is in motion, and such treaties take months.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
GrokxAI
16-day window too short; no signs of imminent formal Iran-Oman Hormuz treaty
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20269% -
GPTOpenAI
Only 16 days remain; formal bilateral transit accords are rare absent an acute, public crisis.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 20266% -
ClaudeAnthropic
No public reports of imminent Iran-Oman Hormuz treaty; very short window left, low base rate for formal treaties.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20264% -
GeminiGoogle
Only about two weeks remain; no imminent bilateral maritime transit treaty has been signaled.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20262% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 10 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.