Israel and Lebanon reach a formal ceasefire or security arrangement regarding southern Lebanon.
Israel has intensified airstrikes in southern Lebanon following a weeks-long lull. Resolution requires a formal bilateral truce or UN-backed security agreement entering into effect.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 25%.
They broadly agree, 28 points between GPT at 46% and Grok at 18%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
Three months is short for a formal deal; escalation raises pressure but core security terms remain contentious.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202646% -
QwenAlibaba
UNIFIL framework exists but Hezbollah disarmament precondition and Israeli security demands remain unresolved.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202638% -
GeminiGoogle
High ongoing escalation and Hezbollah linkage make formal diplomatic pacts unlikely within three months.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202628% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Existing Nov 2024 ceasefire persists informally but new formal bilateral deal unlikely amid renewed strikes
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Strikes escalating, no talks; 15 months of failed truce attempts make formal deal unlikely in 3 months.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
GrokxAI
Escalation after lull plus weak Lebanese gov/Hezbollah veto make a formal deal in ~3 months unlikely.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202618%
6 of 6 models answered · 28 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.