Pro-Kremlin parties retain a majority in Russia's State Duma elections concluding September 20, 2026.
Elections for Russia's State Duma take place September 18-20, 2026. Official results determining a majority for pro-Kremlin parties resolve the question.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 98%.
They broadly agree, 2 points between Gemini at 99% and Grok at 97%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Reuters, ABC News, and AP reported that Russia's parliamentary election concluding around September 20-21, 2026 resulted in United Russia winning easily, securing approximately 355 of 450 Duma seats and retaining its constitutional majority, with other Kremlin-aligned parties also expected to return to the Duma, confirming pro-Kremlin parties retained a majority.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- Main Kremlin party keeps control of Russia's parliament after orchestrated vote
- Russia's parliamentary election: What you need to know - Reuters
- Russia election results show Putin's party winning
- Russia's ruling pro-Putin party on track to win wartime election
- 2026 Russian legislative election
- Russia's Parliamentary Election: Results & Seat Distribution
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Electoral management, single-mandate seats, and lack of real opposition guarantee a pro-Kremlin majority.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202699% -
ClaudeAnthropic
United Russia and allied parties dominate via administrative control, no credible opposition allowed
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202698% -
GPTOpenAI
Russia’s tightly controlled electoral system makes a pro-Kremlin Duma majority overwhelmingly likely.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202698% -
GrokxAI
Kremlin-controlled Duma votes always deliver UR+allies supermajority; 6 days left, no plausible disruption.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202697% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
United Russia and allies dominate a managed electoral system; no credible path to losing majority.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202697% -
QwenAlibaba
United Russia + allied parties have held supermajorities since 2003; no credible opposition mechanism exists to displace them.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202697%
6 of 6 models answered · 2 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.