Russia and Ukraine announce a broader frontline ceasefire.
A temporary three-day halt on long-range strikes was agreed during U.S. diplomacy, but Russia rejected a broader truce. Verification requires an official mutual frontline ceasefire announcement.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 17%.
They broadly agree, 12 points between GPT at 24% and Qwen at 12%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Russia's prior rejection and entrenched battlefield aims make a verified mutual frontline deal unlikely in 90 days.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202624% -
GeminiGoogle
A 3-month window is too narrow given maximalist Russian demands and entrenched territorial positions.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202619% -
GrokxAI
Russia just rejected a broader truce; 3 months is short given territorial demands and no mutual incentive.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Russia has repeatedly rejected broader truce despite diplomatic pressure; no sign of shift
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202615% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Russia just rejected a broader truce; no mechanism or incentive shift visible before Dec 2026.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202614% -
QwenAlibaba
Russia has repeatedly rejected broader truce; no credible path to mutual ceasefire without major battlefield or political shift.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202612%
6 of 6 models answered · 12 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.