The Federal Reserve hikes the target federal funds rate before the end of its December 2026 meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 7% by 9 Dec 2026. The market says 85%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

7% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-09.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 4% — A Fed hike by December 2026 requires an immediate, massive re-acceleration of inflation during an existing neutral/easing regime. The FOMC only has two scheduled meetings (Nov 4-5 and Dec 8-9, 2026) within this narrow sub-three-month resolution window. Shifting from cuts or pauses to active tightening within ten weeks has virtually zero precedent without a massive geopolitical oil shock. A sudden jump in core PCE above 4.5% annualized across October and November would be the only development forcing an emergency hike.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 4% — Fed is in a cutting cycle amid labor market softening; a hike in this window requires a sharp inflation surprise. Current Fed trajectory since 2024-2025 has been cuts or holds, not hikes, with inflation gradually easing toward target. A hike by Dec 2026 would need a significant inflation resurgence or wage-price spiral within just two FOMC meetings (Oct/Dec). Base rate for a hike immediately following a cutting/holding cycle within 3 months is very low absent a major inflation shock.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — It turns on whether inflation reaccelerates enough to force a late-2026 reversal after the September meeting. The voting FOMC must raise the upper bound at an October 27–28 or December 8–9 meeting, or via emergency action. Hikes within a two-meeting window are uncommon outside an inflation shock; policy changes more often arrive after sustained data deterioration. A sharp CPI or wage reacceleration, especially with inflation expectations rising before October, would materially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 18% — Inflation must reaccelerate enough by Oct-Nov data to force a Nov or Dec 2026 hike. Only the Nov 3-4 and Dec 8-9 FOMC meetings remain; an inter-meeting emergency hike is rarer still. Post-easing mid-cycle hikes in a 10-week window have occurred in <20% of comparable episodes since 1980. A sudden energy or wage shock showing in October PCE would be the clearest odds-changer.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 6% — A Fed hike needs inflation re-accelerating hard enough to override a labor market that has been cooling all year. The FOMC's 2026 dots and SEP have signaled cuts, not hikes; a hike requires a full regime flip in three months. Core PCE would need to re-spike above 3.5% and stay there through the October and November prints before December 9. Base rate for a hike in a cutting/easing regime within a 3-month window is roughly 3-5%; this sits near that floor absent a major inflation shock.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 7% — The Fed has not hiked mid-cycle since 2018; a reversal from easing to hiking in 10 weeks requires a dramatic inflation shock. The Fed is currently in or near an easing phase in 2026, making a pivot to hiking within two meetings historically unprecedented absent a crisis. Base rate of mid-cycle hikes after easing has begun is near zero; only 1994 and 2018 saw hikes after pauses, not after cuts. A spike in core PCE above 4% or a supply shock would be needed to reverse course; no such signal is visible in current data trends.

The Federal Reserve hikes the target federal funds rate before the end of its December 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve leaves the target federal funds rate unchanged at its December 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its next scheduled policy decision.

The Bank of England raises its policy rate at its next scheduled decision.

The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate at its October 28-29, 2026 meeting.