The Federal Reserve leaves the target federal funds rate unchanged at its December 2026 meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 50% by 9 Dec 2026. The market says 25%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

50% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-09.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 58% — Turns on whether the FOMC has reached its terminal neutral rate by late 2026 and pauses to assess economic data. Historically the FOMC pauses rate adjustments at roughly 55-60% of all scheduled meetings outside emergency easing cycles. By Q4 2026, the Fed is likely to be near its neutral policy rate (around 3.0-3.5%), favoring pauses over continuous cuts. A rapid inflation resurgence above 3.5% or a sharp labor downturn would force an active move, lowering the hold probability.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 25% — Fed has been cutting through 2025 into 2026; base rate favors another move rather than a pause at any given meeting. FOMC has shown a pattern of consecutive 25bp cuts in 2025-2026 amid labor market softening, making 'unchanged' the less likely outcome. Historically the Fed holds rates unchanged at roughly 60-70% of meetings during non-crisis periods, but this cycle is active with clear easing bias. A surprise inflation resurgence or hawkish data between now and December would be the key driver toward a pause.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — It turns on whether inflation and payroll data let the FOMC pause after its November decision rather than adjust again. The 12-member FOMC must vote on December 8–9, with only about ten weeks of inflation, jobs, and activity data remaining. At scheduled meetings, unchanged decisions are historically more common than moves, especially after a policy adjustment has already occurred. A sharp inflation reacceleration or abrupt labor-market deterioration before the November/December data would most shift this outlook.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — Whether Nov–Dec 2026 data still justify a move after the prior FOMC decision. Only six weeks of CPI, jobs and PCE prints separate the November and December meetings, so inertia dominates unless a clear miss. Outside active hiking/cutting cycles the Fed holds at ~70% of consecutive meetings; late-2026 is likelier a pause than a new cycle. A 0.3pp inflation overshoot or 0.4pp unemployment jump would most change the call.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 42% — It hinges on whether inflation and labor data force a cut between now and the December 2026 FOMC. The FOMC has three meetings before December 2026 (Oct/Nov, and the December meeting itself), so a cut at any of those would break the 'unchanged' condition. Base rate: the Fed has held at a given level for a full year only in a minority of recent cycles; 2024-25 saw cuts, so a 12-month hold is below the historical norm. The single development that would most change my mind is a sharp rise in core PCE or unemployment, which would force a cut or hike before December.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 38% — Whether the Fed is still in an easing cycle or has paused by late 2026 is the crux. The Fed cut 25bp in Sept 2025 and markets price further cuts into 2026; if easing continues, a Dec 2026 hold requires the cycle to have ended by then. Historically, once the Fed begins a cutting cycle it tends to deliver multiple moves before pausing, but pauses between meetings are common—roughly 40-50% of meetings in… A stronger-than-expected labor market or sticky inflation through mid-2026 would push toward a hold; a recession scare would make a cut near-certain, making the hold…

The Federal Reserve leaves the target federal funds rate unchanged at its December 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve hikes the target federal funds rate before the end of its December 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its next scheduled policy decision.

The Bank of England raises its policy rate at its next scheduled decision.

The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate at its October 28-29, 2026 meeting.