The Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling regime falls before 2027.
Iran faces severe internal and external pressures. This resolves as true if the current regime is overthrown, collapses, or ceases to govern by December 31, 2026.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 6%.
They broadly agree, 7 points between GPT at 9% and Gemini at 2%.
Traders risking real money on Polymarket land in the same place, at 7%.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -1 pts
- Moved this week
- +2 pts
- Since we asked
- -1 pts
- Volume
- $28.1M
The panel and the market agree almost exactly — 6% against 7%.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Regime change within 108 days is rare; coercive institutions remain cohesive despite pressure.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 20269% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Regimes under this level of stress rarely fall in ~3.5 months; IRGC still cohesive and no defection cascade.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20267% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Regime retains security apparatus loyalty; short window, no imminent collapse trigger visible
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20266% -
GrokxAI
~3.5 months left; IRGC/Basij have crushed prior unrest and succession wouldn't dissolve the system.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20265% -
GeminiGoogle
With only 3.5 months remaining, total collapse or dissolution of the security apparatus is extremely unlikely.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20262% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 7 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not quali
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.