United Russia gains the most seats in the September 2026 Russian State Duma election.
Russia is holding elections for the State Duma in September 2026. Resolves as yes if United Russia experiences the largest net increase in seats of any party relative to its pre-election standing.
Across 4 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans no: the median is 45%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 67% and Claude at 10%, 57 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 100%, so the models are 55 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Settled by Polymarket: “Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?” resolved YES.
Settled by the exchange The prediction market this came from paid out on this outcome. Real money, with a formal dispute window — the strongest evidence available here.
The market that settled it asked: Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- AI edge
- -55 pts
- Moved this week
- +21 pts
- Since we asked
- +20 pts
- Volume
- $24.5M
The models are sharply less confident than traders risking real money: 45% against 100%.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Managed electoral system favors the ruling party, though its already huge baseline limits net gains.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202667% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
United Russia dominates; 'gains most seats' likely means largest total, not net increase from a high base.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202662% -
GeminiGoogle
Starting at 324/450 seats, UR faces a high ceiling; if it loses seats or stalls, another party wins.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202628% -
ClaudeAnthropic
United Russia already holds ~325 seats; gains vs.
- gains for others unlikely since it's near-max…
10% -
GrokxAIno answer this run x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
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QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
4 of 6 models answered · 57 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.