US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner broker an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
US envoys are conducting a new peace diplomatic push amid fresh strikes on Kyiv. It resolves positively if Russia and Ukraine officially announce a ceasefire mediated by the US envoys.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 9%.
They broadly agree, 14 points between GPT at 18% and Gemini at 4%.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
A one-month window and entrenched Russian-Ukrainian bargaining gaps make a formal mediated deal unlikely.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
QwenAlibaba
Russia shows no incentive to stop; Ukraine won't cede territory; 1 month too short for such a deal.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Multiple prior deadlines missed; core disputes over territory/security unresolved
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202610% -
GrokxAI
One-month window plus ongoing Kyiv strikes make an official US-brokered ceasefire extremely unlikely.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20267% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Core territorial disputes unresolved; 30 days is far too short for a formal ceasefire deal.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20267% -
GeminiGoogle
A one-month window is far too short to bridge the vast maximalist gaps between Moscow and Kyiv.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20264%
6 of 6 models answered · 14 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.