Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia by December 31, 2026.
Putin has led Russia for decades amid wartime pressures. This resolves as true if he leaves office or his resignation is announced before the end of 2026.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 5%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between GPT at 9% and Gemini at 3%.
Traders risking real money on Polymarket land in the same place, at 2%.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +3 pts
- Moved this week
- 0 pts
- Since we asked
- -5 pts
- Volume
- $26.7M
The panel and the market agree almost exactly — 5% against 2%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
Despite war and health/security risks, elite control and succession planning favor continuity through 2026.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 20269% -
ClaudeAnthropic
No credible succession pressure; entrenched control, term runs to 2030.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20266% -
GrokxAI
3.5-month window too brief given Putin's control, no succession, and years of unfulfilled health/coup rumors
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20265% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Putin has ruled 26 years; war-time autocrats rarely exit on a 15-week clock absent coup, illness, or death.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20265% -
GeminiGoogle
With only 3.5 months remaining, only sudden death or an unprecedented rapid coup could remove him.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20263% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.