THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

6 questions in Security & Defense. Sorted by newest.

1 week1 month3 months6 months1 year3 years5 years10 years50 years
◆ Artificial Intelligence 137▲ Markets & Economy 133⬢ Geopolitics 100▢ Policy & Law 88◇ Gaming 88⚡ Energy 83▽ Security & Defense 73◉ Climate & Environment 66✦ Space 64◈ Crypto & Finance 46▣ Consumer Tech 42✚ Health & Medicine 35❖ Biotech 32▶ Transportation 30
1W 5 Oct 2026

Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by the end of September 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 10
8%
AI
1W 3 Oct 2026

Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 7
4%
AI
1M 1 Oct 2026

The United States announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 14 vs market +7
7%
AI vs 0%
1W 22 Sept 2026

Russia and Ukraine observe a reciprocal three-day halt on strikes targeting Kyiv and Moscow.✓ happened

▽ Security & Defense spread 70
25%
AI
1M 1 Oct 2026

Houthi military forces enter Aden by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 3 vs market +3
4%
AI vs 1%
1M 30 Sept 2026

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026.✓ happened

▽ Security & Defense spread 24 vs market -23
77%
AI vs 100%