THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
22 questions in Geopolitics. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 137▲ Markets & Economy 133⬢ Geopolitics 100▢ Policy & Law 88◇ Gaming 88⚡ Energy 83▽ Security & Defense 73◉ Climate & Environment 66✦ Space 64◈ Crypto & Finance 46▣ Consumer Tech 42✚ Health & Medicine 35❖ Biotech 32▶ Transportation 30
1W
5 Oct 2026
Renan Santos finishes in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't
4%
AI vs 0%
1W
5 Oct 2026
A candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't
14%
AI vs 0%
1W
5 Oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't
14%
AI vs 0%
1W
5 Oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened
6%
AI vs 100%
1W
7 Oct 2026
The United States and Iran announce a resumption of formal negotiations or an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.✗ didn't
14%
AI
1W
5 Oct 2026
The United States and China reach an agreement on rare-earth export restrictions during the Trump-Xi meeting this week.✗ didn't
18%
AI
1W
4 Oct 2026
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened
48%
AI vs 24%
1W
3 Oct 2026
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General Assembly by video during the high-level debate.✓ happened
94%
AI
1M
4 Oct 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened
26%
AI vs 100%
1W
30 Sept 2026
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold an in-person summit in Washington by October 7, 2026.✓ happened
82%
AI
1W
28 Sept 2026
A ceasefire, prisoner exchange, or peace framework between Russia and Ukraine is confirmed by the UN General Assembly general debate on September 22, 2026.✗ didn't
9%
AI
1M
30 Sept 2026
The US and Iran hold a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026.✓ happened
22%
AI vs 100%
1W
20 Sept 2026
The SPD wins the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election.✗ didn't
25%
AI vs 56%
1W
22 Sept 2026
The US announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by September 21, 2026.✗ didn't
7%
AI vs 0%
1M
14 Oct 2026
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping officially extend their bilateral trade truce at the September 24, 2026 summit.✓ happened
56%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a concrete ceasefire framework between Russia and Ukraine.✗ didn't
12%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
Pro-Kremlin parties retain a majority in Russia's State Duma elections concluding September 20, 2026.✓ happened
98%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The UN General Assembly adopts a joint resolution or formal declaration on Middle East conflicts before concluding on September 22, 2026.✓ happened
54%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a formal breakthrough in peace talks during their Moscow and Ukraine visits.✗ didn't
12%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The DRC government and the M23-led AFC alliance agree to an operational ceasefire at the Geneva talks on September 16–17, 2026.✗ didn't
22%
AI
1M
1 Oct 2026
Iran and Oman announce a diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't
6%
AI vs 0%
1M
30 Sept 2026
United Russia gains the most seats in the September 2026 Russian State Duma election.✓ happened
45%
AI vs 100%