THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

20 questions. Sorted by newest.

1 week1 month3 months6 months1 year3 years5 years10 years50 years
◆ Artificial Intelligence 137▲ Markets & Economy 133⬢ Geopolitics 100▢ Policy & Law 88◇ Gaming 88⚡ Energy 83▽ Security & Defense 73◉ Climate & Environment 66✦ Space 64◈ Crypto & Finance 46▣ Consumer Tech 42✚ Health & Medicine 35❖ Biotech 32▶ Transportation 30
1M 4 Oct 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 16 vs market -74
26%
AI vs 100%
1M 1 Oct 2026

The United States announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 14 vs market +7
7%
AI vs 0%
1M 1 Oct 2026

IMF PortWatch records a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer transit calls in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▶ Transportation spread 15 vs market +8
8%
AI vs 0%
1M 30 Sept 2026

The US and Iran hold a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 59 vs market -78
22%
AI vs 100%
1M 1 Oct 2026

Houthi military forces enter Aden by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 3 vs market +3
4%
AI vs 1%
1M 14 Oct 2026

The UK government formally approves the Jackdaw North Sea gas project in September 2026.✗ didn't

⚡ Energy spread 40
38%
AI
1M 30 Sept 2026

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026.✓ happened

▽ Security & Defense spread 24 vs market -23
77%
AI vs 100%
1M 14 Oct 2026

China issues export-control restrictions on AI models before October 2026.✗ didn't

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 43
33%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping officially extend their bilateral trade truce at the September 24, 2026 summit.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 50
56%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a concrete ceasefire framework between Russia and Ukraine.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 33
12%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

Saudi Arabia reopens the East-West pipeline following the drone attack from Iraq.✓ happened

⚡ Energy spread 16
78%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

Supercell completes its acquisition of Metacore by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

◇ Gaming spread 24
82%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

The United States and China hold bilateral AI safety talks before the end of September 2026.✓ happened

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 17
83%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

Governor Gavin Newsom signs the Frontier AI Safety Act into law by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 35
38%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

The United States and China extend their October 2025 trade truce at their meeting on September 24, 2026.✓ happened

▢ Policy & Law spread 25
40%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

A copyright, trademark, or trade dress lawsuit is filed regarding White House Arcade by October 5, 2026.✗ didn't

◇ Gaming spread 9
4%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

Supercell closes its acquisition of Metacore by the end of September 2026.✗ didn't

◇ Gaming spread 24
88%
AI
1M 1 Oct 2026

Iran and Oman announce a diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 10 vs market +6
6%
AI vs 0%
1M 1 Oct 2026

Active-month WTI crude oil futures trade at or above $105 per barrel during September 2026.✓ happened

⚡ Energy spread 35 vs market -96
4%
AI vs 100%
1M 30 Sept 2026

United Russia gains the most seats in the September 2026 Russian State Duma election.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 57 vs market -55
45%
AI vs 100%