THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
141 questions in Artificial Intelligence. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
10Y
6 Oct 2036
A scientific consensus concludes that an artificial intelligence system has achieved self-awareness before 2035.
4%
AI
10Y
6 Oct 2036
An artificial intelligence system autonomously controls key global economic or military infrastructure before 2035.
7%
AI
3Y
7 Oct 2029
The product-linked rules of the EU AI Act enter into application on 2 August 2028.
75%
AI
1Y
8 Oct 2027
California's SB 947 (No Robo Bosses Act) is enjoined or invalidated by a court prior to July 1, 2027.
27%
AI
3M
6 Jan 2027
Legislation defining 'Super Intelligence' is submitted to the U.S. Congress within 60 days of the executive order.
63%
AI
1Y
8 Oct 2027
The U.S. Senate passes or advances the AI Agent Accountability Act out of committee.
17%
AI
3Y
7 Oct 2029
Deferred Annex III rules under the EU AI Act begin enforcement on 2 December 2027 as currently scheduled.
59%
AI
6M
4 Apr 2027
Colorado adopts final rules on Automated Decision-Making Technology and Chatbot Safety following its October 26, 2026 comment deadline.
72%
AI
6M
4 Apr 2027
Google resumes its Open Source Software Vulnerability Rewards Program with updated rules filtering AI-generated reports.
82%
AI
1Y
6 Oct 2027
The FTC initiates an enforcement action against OpenAI or Anthropic arising from its September 2026 safety scrutiny.
22%
AI
3M
4 Jan 2027
The Trump administration submits draft legislation legally defining 'Super Intelligence' by late November 2026.
25%
AI
3Y
1 Jan 2028
OpenAI announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.
3%
AI vs 8%
6M
1 Apr 2027
The European Central Bank takes public supervisory enforcement action against banks missing the October 31, 2026 AI cyber-threat plan deadline.
12%
AI
6M
1 Apr 2027
Colorado adopts final rules on ADMT and chatbot safety following the October 26, 2026 comment deadline.
65%
AI
1Y
3 Oct 2027
The FTC announces a formal enforcement action against OpenAI or Anthropic arising from its October 2026 safety probe.
25%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic publicly launch an industry-run AI safety standards body by the end of 2026.
38%
AI
1W
10 Oct 2026
Italy publishes delegated decrees aligning national law with the EU AI Act by October 10, 2026.✓ happened
28%
AI
1W
10 Oct 2026
The White House formally announces Jay Clayton as the new AI czar on October 3, 2026.✓ happened
12%
AI
3Y
1 Jan 2028
Anthropic announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.
3%
AI vs 10%
6M
2 Jan 2027
Anthropic achieves the highest first-day closing market capitalization among 2026 IPOs.
12%
AI vs 38%
1M
31 Oct 2026
An Anthropic model holds the top rank on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard on October 31, 2026.
27%
AI vs 9%
3M
30 Dec 2026
OpenAI releases the model delayed in late September 2026 before the end of the year.
66%
AI
3M
30 Dec 2026
The European Commission advances new binding AI regulations before the end of 2026.
27%
AI
3M
30 Dec 2026
A bipartisan Senate AI safety bill is officially introduced before the Senate adjourns for the 2026 election.
36%
AI
3M
30 Dec 2026
The U.S. Congress passes an AI safety bill before the November 2026 midterm election.
8%
AI
3Y
28 Sept 2029
The European Union further delays the Annex III high-risk compliance deadline beyond 2 December 2027.
34%
AI
6M
28 Mar 2027
The U.S. Congress votes on advanced AI supply chain or sustainability bills following the November 2026 recess.
38%
AI
1Y
29 Sept 2027
The UK government introduces legislation establishing a dedicated AI oversight body.
25%
AI
6M
28 Mar 2027
OpenAI and Anthropic provide new models to UK testers following completion of the U.S. government review.
72%
AI
1Y
29 Sept 2027
Oregon publishes standards for third-party AI safety reviews or a kill-switch mandate for frontier models.
58%
AI
1Y
29 Sept 2027
A legal challenge is filed against California's SB 1050 or AB 2 before their implementation dates.
75%
AI
3M
26 Dec 2026
Providers of legacy synthetic media systems comply with Article 50(2) of the EU AI Act by December 2, 2026.
35%
AI
3M
26 Dec 2026
The White House issues an executive order on AI safety before the November 2026 midterm elections.
20%
AI
3M
26 Dec 2026
The U.S. House schedules floor action on an AI bill during its post-midterm session in 2026.
27%
AI
3M
26 Dec 2026
Congress moves an AI safety bill before the House enters recess ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.
12%
AI
3M
23 Dec 2026
OMB discloses that at least one federal agency discontinued a high-impact AI system due to non-compliance with M-25-21.
16%
AI
1M
24 Oct 2026
The United States and China announce a binding bilateral agreement on AI pacing or risk reduction.
6%
AI
3M
23 Dec 2026
Microsoft publishes a finalized AI governance framework following its six-week public consultation.
72%
AI
3Y
23 Sept 2029
A national government adopts mandatory capability-based AI safety thresholds that pause model development.
26%
AI
1Y
24 Sept 2027
The US House passes the AI, supply chain security, and sustainability mandates bill.
35%
AI