THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
109 questions in Geopolitics. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
3M
1 Dec 2026
The US publicly announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by November 30, 2026.
11%
AI vs 27%
3M
29 Nov 2026
Puma Shen is elected Mayor of Taipei in the November 2026 municipal election.
5%
AI vs 34%
3M
29 Nov 2026
Chiang Wan-an wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election.
74%
AI vs 68%
3M
1 Jan 2027
Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026.
18%
AI vs 21%
1M
27 Nov 2026
A trilateral summit between Trump, Xi, and Putin is held in November 2026.
12%
AI
1M
27 Nov 2026
Officials from Russia and Ukraine hold an official meeting in November 2026.
36%
AI
3M
26 Jan 2027
A new Israeli government is sworn in with a governing coalition majority following the election.
57%
AI
6M
19 Apr 2027
David Lisnard wins the next French presidential election.
2%
AI vs 15%
3M
1 Jan 2027
No listed national leader ceases to permanently occupy their office before 2027.
56%
AI vs 45%
3M
23 Jan 2027
Houthi forces reopen humanitarian access routes into Taiz, Yemen.
18%
AI
1M
24 Nov 2026
Direct talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran produce an announced ceasefire or agreement.
20%
AI
1M
24 Nov 2026
US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine resume in November 2026.
32%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026.
3%
AI vs 4%
1Y
18 Oct 2027
Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia sign a binding multilateral agreement with Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
7%
AI
3M
16 Jan 2027
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is formally restricted or halted by Iranian forces.
12%
AI
3M
16 Jan 2027
Ukraine and Russia formally confirm an energy ceasefire agreement based on the U.S. proposal.
19%
AI
1M
26 Oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12 percentage points.
4%
AI vs 0%
1M
4 Nov 2026
A Hormuz agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
4%
AI vs 5%
3M
14 Jan 2027
Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement to limit strikes on grain and energy infrastructure before winter 2026.
20%
AI
3M
30 Nov 2026
Russia and Ukraine hold direct diplomatic peace talks by November 30, 2026.
11%
AI vs 79%
3M
31 Dec 2026
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attends a formal US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 23%
1M
26 Oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 8% to 12%.
4%
AI vs 0%
1M
13 Nov 2026
A sustained halt in hostilities and Israeli airstrikes in Gaza is observed following reported ceasefire talks.
19%
AI
3M
12 Jan 2027
Negotiators announce an agreed ceasefire or peace framework between Russia and Ukraine resulting from the Miami talks.
12%
AI
1M
25 Oct 2026
Aleksandar Vucic becomes the next Prime Minister of Serbia.
12%
AI vs 3%
1Y
1 Jul 2027
Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027.
38%
AI vs 60%
3M
1 Jan 2027
Ukraine recaptures territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026.
4%
AI vs 3%
1M
11 Nov 2026
Iran formally accepts the US response regarding the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
30%
AI
3M
10 Jan 2027
Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire.
19%
AI
5Y
9 Oct 2031
At least one nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war before 2030.
6%
AI
5Y
9 Oct 2031
A direct military conflict between two or more nuclear-armed superpowers breaks out before 2030.
7%
AI
1M
4 Nov 2026
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through November 3, 2026.
88%
AI vs 92%
1M
8 Nov 2026
South Korea recalls its ambassador to Ukraine over the disclosure of North Korean prisoners of war.
8%
AI
6M
5 Apr 2027
The existing ceasefire in the Gaza conflict collapses.
63%
AI
1Y
7 Oct 2027
The United States and Iran reach a formal negotiated settlement.
12%
AI
1M
25 Oct 2026
The Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia electoral list wins the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.
83%
AI vs 0%
1M
1 Nov 2026
The 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to 10 or fewer by October 31, 2026.
7%
AI vs 1%
3M
1 Jan 2027
Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain by December 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 20%
1Y
5 Oct 2027
Ethiopia and Eritrea restore formal diplomatic relations by October 5, 2027.
18%
AI
3M
3 Jan 2027
Houthi forces enter Taiz City by December 31, 2026.
12%
AI