THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
67 questions. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
5Y
28 Oct 2031
AI causes net global employment to decline by at least 5% before 2030.
4%
AI
5Y
28 Oct 2031
A certified flying car or roadable aircraft is delivered to a private retail buyer before 2031.
30%
AI
5Y
28 Oct 2031
A certified eVTOL or roadable aircraft becomes commercially available for passenger service in the United States before 2030.
48%
AI
5Y
27 Oct 2031
A commercially available general-purpose domestic robot autonomously cleans an entire standard home before 2030.
13%
AI
5Y
27 Oct 2031
Standard clinical turnaround for an ex vivo autologous gene editing therapy falls below 14 days before 2030.
22%
AI
5Y
27 Oct 2031
Human germline gene editing results in a live birth before 2030.
18%
AI
5Y
27 Oct 2031
A quantum computer solves an economically valuable problem faster than classical computers before 2030.
20%
AI
5Y
25 Oct 2031
Ethereum drops out of the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization before January 1, 2030.
15%
AI
5Y
24 Oct 2031
A feature film sequel to The Martian is officially announced before 2030.
9%
AI
5Y
18 Oct 2031
Japan's MMX mission successfully collects and returns samples containing Mars dust.
41%
AI
5Y
17 Oct 2031
Global annual greenhouse gas emissions peak before 2030.
40%
AI
5Y
17 Oct 2031
Chennai experiences a Day Zero municipal water supply failure before 2030.
17%
AI
5Y
17 Oct 2031
Punjab records a new all-time high summer temperature surpassing 50 degrees Celsius before 2030.
22%
AI
5Y
17 Oct 2031
Global average surface temperature warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius across a sustained multi-year average before 2030.
31%
AI
5Y
16 Oct 2031
A therapy demonstrated to significantly extend maximum human lifespan enters Phase III clinical trials before 2031.
9%
AI
5Y
16 Oct 2031
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is publicly demonstrated and broadly recognized by leading AI labs before 2030.
20%
AI
5Y
16 Oct 2031
AI tools automate more than 50% of routine IT support and software maintenance jobs before 2030.
16%
AI
5Y
13 Oct 2031
AI displacement causes US net job losses exceeding five million by 2030.
6%
AI
5Y
12 Oct 2031
The United Kingdom or a majority of US states implement a mandatory per-mile road usage charge on electric vehicles before 2030.
18%
AI
5Y
12 Oct 2031
Electric vehicles account for more than 50% of new light vehicle sales in Australia before 2030.
15%
AI
5Y
12 Oct 2031
A commercially certified flying car or eVTOL passenger vehicle begins regular passenger operations before 2030.
62%
AI
5Y
12 Oct 2031
Consumer humanoid robots achieve over 1 million annual unit sales globally before 2030.
6%
AI
5Y
12 Oct 2031
The first fully functional lab-grown human organ is successfully transplanted into a patient before 2030.
11%
AI
5Y
11 Oct 2031
The Academy Awards live broadcast moves primarily to YouTube or another digital streaming platform before 2030.
15%
AI
5Y
11 Oct 2031
Ethereum reaches a price of $10,000 before 2030.
38%
AI
5Y
9 Oct 2031
At least one nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war before 2030.
6%
AI
5Y
9 Oct 2031
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is publicly demonstrated before 2030.
15%
AI
5Y
9 Oct 2031
A direct military conflict between two or more nuclear-armed superpowers breaks out before 2030.
7%
AI
5Y
6 Oct 2031
The United States reinstates the military draft before 2030.
3%
AI
5Y
6 Oct 2031
The United States reinstates a military draft in response to a major global conflict before 2030.
5%
AI
5Y
6 Oct 2031
AI displacement leads to net US employment loss in white-collar sectors before 2030.
14%
AI
5Y
5 Oct 2031
The United Kingdom bans the sale of new pure internal combustion engine cars by the end of 2030.
63%
AI
5Y
5 Oct 2031
Electric vehicles account for more than 50% of new passenger car sales globally before 2030.
27%
AI
5Y
5 Oct 2031
A fully bioengineered, lab-grown human solid organ is successfully transplanted into a human patient before 2031.
16%
AI
5Y
5 Oct 2031
A fault-tolerant commercial quantum computing service is offered to enterprise customers before 2030.
20%
AI
5Y
5 Oct 2031
The US FDA approves an in vivo CRISPR-based gene editing therapy for common cardiovascular disease before 2030.
16%
AI
5Y
4 Oct 2031
The Academy Awards ceremony is broadcast live on YouTube before 2030.
12%
AI
5Y
4 Oct 2031
A cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin reaches a market capitalization exceeding Bitcoin's before 2030.
8%
AI
5Y
1 Oct 2031
The United Kingdom declares war or invokes NATO Article 5 in response to an attack on its homeland before 2030.
4%
AI
5Y
30 Sept 2031
India approves cultivated meat for commercial sale before 2030.
25%
AI