THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
141 questions in Artificial Intelligence. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
1Y
24 Sept 2027
The UK government introduces legislation to establish a dedicated AI oversight body.
22%
AI
10Y
21 Sept 2036
Artificial superintelligence is developed and confirmed before 2035.
12%
AI
5Y
23 Sept 2031
Artificial general intelligence is publicly demonstrated before 2030.
28%
AI
1W
1 Oct 2026
Donald Trump signs an executive action renaming artificial intelligence by September 30, 2026.✓ happened
3%
AI vs 100%
6M
22 Mar 2027
Meta expands its personal AI agent Muse outside the United States by the end of 2026.
49%
AI
3Y
21 Sept 2029
The EU AI Act's standalone Annex III high-risk compliance deadline changes from December 2, 2027.
25%
AI
6M
20 Mar 2027
Meta expands its Muse AI agent outside the United States by December 31, 2026.
60%
AI
1Y
19 Sept 2027
California formally proposes regulations regarding an AI kill switch pursuant to Governor Newsom's executive order before mid-2027.
28%
AI
1M
19 Oct 2026
Donald Trump meets with AI executives to discuss government oversight before October 2026.
75%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
The U.S. Congress enacts a mandatory national AI safety framework before the end of 2026.
10%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
The U.S. Congress advances AI regulation legislation during the post-election lame-duck session in 2026.
18%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
Three U.S. senators introduce legislation requiring AI companies to prove reasonable precautions against harm before Congress adjourns in 2026.
75%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
The UK government introduces an AI Bill addressing human-rights risks from AI systems before the end of 2026.
27%
AI
1Y
1 Jul 2027
Anthropic completes an initial public offering by October 31, 2026.
4%
AI vs 0%
10Y
15 Sept 2036
An AI-designed therapy leads to a clinical cure for a major cancer before 2032.
25%
AI
1W
25 Sept 2026
The U.S. and China hold an official bilateral AI policy meeting before September 24, 2026.✓ happened
72%
AI
1M
18 Oct 2026
All providers of GPAI foundation models above the 10^25 FLOPs threshold submitted their first formal systemic risk evaluations to the European AI Office by September 15, 2026.
20%
AI
1M
18 Oct 2026
California's governor signs the frontier AI safety bill into law by midnight on September 30, 2026.
62%
AI
10Y
14 Sept 2036
Artificial superintelligence (ASI) is developed before 2035.
18%
AI
1Y
16 Sept 2027
A court issues a final merits judgment in the constitutional challenge to California's AB 2013.
53%
AI
6M
15 Mar 2027
NIST publishes the finalized TEVV-Athlon Framework for Evaluating AI Systems following public comment.
40%
AI
1Y
16 Sept 2027
California's Government Operations Agency establishes an operational AI Auditor Registry pursuant to AB 1405.
48%
AI
6M
15 Mar 2027
The U.S. Senate advances legislation requiring AI companies to demonstrate reasonable precautions.
38%
AI
1Y
16 Sept 2027
The United States establishes mandatory federal AI safety requirements.
28%
AI
1Y
16 Sept 2027
The European Commission takes formal enforcement action against at least one AI company following its information requests.
50%
AI
10Y
12 Sept 2036
A technological singularity driven by self-improving artificial intelligence occurs before 2035.
6%
AI
5Y
14 Sept 2031
Artificial intelligence surpasses human performance on all standard professional and cognitive benchmarks before 2030.
25%
AI
6M
13 Mar 2027
The United States and China hold dedicated bilateral AI safety talks and issue a joint statement.
38%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
China issues export-control restrictions on AI models before October 2026.✗ didn't
33%
AI
1Y
14 Sept 2027
The U.S. District Court for the Central District of California issues a merits decision in the litigation over California AB 2013.
42%
AI
6M
13 Mar 2027
Japanese authorities issue their first formal guidance or enforcement action under Japan's AI Act.
67%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
The European Commission AI Office fills about 40 contractual agent posts ahead of the December 2026 enforcement deadline.
78%
AI
6M
13 Mar 2027
The European Commission launches a formal investigation or enforcement action under the EU AI Act against at least one recipient of its recent information requests.
32%
AI
1Y
14 Sept 2027
DeepSeek formally files for an initial public offering in China.
40%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
The United States and China hold bilateral AI safety talks before the end of September 2026.✓ happened
83%
AI
6M
13 Mar 2027
NIST releases a revised or final version of the AI Standards Zero Draft following the public comment period.
71%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Governor Gavin Newsom signs the Frontier AI Safety Act into law by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't
38%
AI
3Y
13 Sept 2029
The European Commission maintains the 2 December 2027 compliance deadline for Annex III high-risk AI systems without further extension.
62%
AI
1Y
14 Sept 2027
The European Commission opens formal proceedings under the AI Act against at least one AI company.
63%
AI
1Y
14 Sept 2027
The UK Information Commissioner's Office publishes a statutory code of practice on AI and automated decision-making.
58%
AI