THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
76 questions in Security & Defense. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
1M
27 Nov 2026
A localized humanitarian ceasefire takes effect in the Oleshky area of Kherson as announced.
40%
AI
3M
31 Dec 2026
A total internet blackout occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.
7%
AI vs 28%
3M
25 Jan 2027
Capcom reports additional compromised accounts beyond the initial 11.7 million Capcom IDs.
20%
AI
6M
24 Apr 2027
U.S. federal civilian agencies complete the removal of DeepSeek products from IT systems pursuant to the DHS order.
73%
AI
1M
24 Nov 2026
Iran launches a direct military strike against Israel following border airspace maneuvers.
15%
AI
3M
23 Jan 2027
IAEA nuclear inspectors are permitted to return to Iran.
38%
AI
1M
24 Nov 2026
Israel launches a major military operation in the West Bank following the October 23 checkpoint attack.
55%
AI
1M
17 Nov 2026
Saudi Arabia or allied forces launch confirmed retaliatory strikes following the October 2026 Houthi attacks on Riyadh.
52%
AI
6M
16 Apr 2027
The United States officially halts or reduces intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
34%
AI
3M
14 Jan 2027
Commercial shipping incidents occur in the Strait of Hormuz before January 2027.
76%
AI
3M
14 Jan 2027
Houthi forces conduct further missile or drone strikes targeting Saudi Arabian territory before December 2026.
83%
AI
3M
14 Jan 2027
The UN announces a formal ceasefire agreement in Yemen by the end of 2026.
10%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
The United States commences a military invasion of Cuba in 2026.
1%
AI vs 6%
3M
1 Jan 2027
Houthi military forces enter Aden, Yemen by December 31, 2026.
4%
AI vs 18%
3M
12 Jan 2027
The United States enacts a military draft before the end of 2026.
2%
AI
1M
13 Nov 2026
Commercial vessels face further confirmed attacks in or near the Strait of Hormuz by the end of October 2026.
88%
AI
1M
13 Nov 2026
The United States joins Saudi military strikes against Houthi forces in Yemen.
18%
AI
1M
1 Nov 2026
Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026.
8%
AI vs 1%
1M
11 Nov 2026
Houthi forces launch a new claimed attack against Saudi infrastructure.
65%
AI
1M
10 Nov 2026
President Trump announces direct US military action against the Houthis in Yemen.
39%
AI
1M
10 Nov 2026
The Saudi-led coalition conducts retaliatory military strikes against Houthi targets following the Riyadh airport attack.
85%
AI
1M
8 Nov 2026
The United States conducts military strikes against Iran before the November 2026 midterm elections.
15%
AI
3M
5 Jan 2027
Pakistani and Turkish military forces officially deploy to Saudi Arabia.
21%
AI
6M
5 Apr 2027
Commercial shipping fully resumes through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran's conditions are met.
26%
AI
5Y
6 Oct 2031
The United States reinstates the military draft before 2030.
3%
AI
5Y
6 Oct 2031
The United States reinstates a military draft in response to a major global conflict before 2030.
5%
AI
3Y
6 Oct 2029
A major cyberattack disables critical US energy infrastructure before 2028.
15%
AI
3M
3 Jan 2027
The Pentagon deploys a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East before December 31, 2026.
22%
AI
3M
3 Jan 2027
The United States conducts military strikes against Iran between November 4, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
14%
AI
6M
31 Mar 2027
Hamas or other Gaza-based armed groups take formal steps to disarm under the existing ceasefire framework.
15%
AI
3M
31 Dec 2026
Iran or the United States engages in renewed military action or imposes maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
67%
AI
1M
1 Nov 2026
Israel officially blames Iran or its proxies for the September 2026 FlyDubai stabbing incident by October 31, 2026.
8%
AI vs 1%
10Y
28 Sept 2036
A quantum computer decrypts standard 2048-bit RSA encryption before 2035.
13%
AI
1M
30 Oct 2026
Ethiopian pro-government forces maintain control of the newly captured strategic town in Tigray.
71%
AI
1M
30 Oct 2026
Russia conducts a military strike beyond Ukraine's borders against a European nation.
6%
AI
3Y
28 Sept 2029
The United States reinstates a military draft before December 31, 2028.
3%
AI
3M
28 Dec 2026
A major cyberattack disables critical infrastructure in a G7 nation before December 31, 2026.
12%
AI
1W
5 Oct 2026
Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by the end of September 2026.✗ didn't
8%
AI
3M
25 Dec 2026
President Trump orders renewed attacks in the Iran war before the 2026 midterm elections.
36%
AI
1W
3 Oct 2026
Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't
4%
AI