THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
13 questions in Security & Defense. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
6M
24 Apr 2027
U.S. federal civilian agencies complete the removal of DeepSeek products from IT systems pursuant to the DHS order.
73%
AI
6M
16 Apr 2027
The United States officially halts or reduces intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
34%
AI
6M
5 Apr 2027
Commercial shipping fully resumes through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran's conditions are met.
26%
AI
6M
31 Mar 2027
Hamas or other Gaza-based armed groups take formal steps to disarm under the existing ceasefire framework.
15%
AI
6M
1 Jan 2027
Russian forces enter the city of Dobropillia by December 31, 2026.
17%
AI vs 100%
6M
1 Jan 2027
NATO and Russian military forces clash directly by December 31, 2026.
7%
AI vs 14%
6M
20 Mar 2027
A major cyber incident causes over $1 billion in direct economic damages worldwide before the end of 2026.
30%
AI
6M
20 Mar 2027
A major cyber attack disables critical infrastructure in the United States before the end of 2026.
8%
AI
6M
20 Mar 2027
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis announce a formal ceasefire agreement.
33%
AI
6M
1 Jan 2027
Israel carries out strikes on soil in at least four distinct countries during 2026.
75%
AI vs 67%
6M
13 Mar 2027
Iran grants IAEA inspectors access to restricted nuclear facilities to verify enriched uranium stockpiles.
22%
AI
6M
31 Dec 2026
China commences a military invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026.
3%
AI vs 2%
6M
1 Jan 2027
The United States commences a military invasion of Iran before 2027.
3%
AI vs 19%