THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
30 questions in Security & Defense. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
1M
27 Nov 2026
A localized humanitarian ceasefire takes effect in the Oleshky area of Kherson as announced.
40%
AI
1M
24 Nov 2026
Iran launches a direct military strike against Israel following border airspace maneuvers.
15%
AI
1M
24 Nov 2026
Israel launches a major military operation in the West Bank following the October 23 checkpoint attack.
55%
AI
1M
17 Nov 2026
Saudi Arabia or allied forces launch confirmed retaliatory strikes following the October 2026 Houthi attacks on Riyadh.
52%
AI
1M
13 Nov 2026
Commercial vessels face further confirmed attacks in or near the Strait of Hormuz by the end of October 2026.
88%
AI
1M
13 Nov 2026
The United States joins Saudi military strikes against Houthi forces in Yemen.
18%
AI
1M
1 Nov 2026
Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026.
8%
AI vs 1%
1M
11 Nov 2026
Houthi forces launch a new claimed attack against Saudi infrastructure.
65%
AI
1M
10 Nov 2026
President Trump announces direct US military action against the Houthis in Yemen.
39%
AI
1M
10 Nov 2026
The Saudi-led coalition conducts retaliatory military strikes against Houthi targets following the Riyadh airport attack.
85%
AI
1M
8 Nov 2026
The United States conducts military strikes against Iran before the November 2026 midterm elections.
15%
AI
1M
1 Nov 2026
Israel officially blames Iran or its proxies for the September 2026 FlyDubai stabbing incident by October 31, 2026.
8%
AI vs 1%
1M
30 Oct 2026
Ethiopian pro-government forces maintain control of the newly captured strategic town in Tigray.
71%
AI
1M
30 Oct 2026
Russia conducts a military strike beyond Ukraine's borders against a European nation.
6%
AI
1M
23 Oct 2026
Houthi forces retain control of the Red Sea port of Mokha through October 2026.
82%
AI
1M
1 Oct 2026
The United States announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't
7%
AI vs 0%
1M
19 Oct 2026
Houthi forces lose control of the newly seized Red Sea port city.
16%
AI
1M
19 Oct 2026
The United States or Iran conducts a new military strike against the other.
30%
AI
1M
17 Oct 2026
Tehran officially declares a restricted maritime zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026.
38%
AI
1M
15 Oct 2026
The United States approves a formal military assistance package to Saudi Arabia following the Houthi offensive.
30%
AI
1M
15 Oct 2026
Israel formally establishes a new security zone inside Lebanese territory.
20%
AI
1M
1 Oct 2026
Houthi military forces enter Aden by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't
4%
AI vs 1%
1M
30 Sept 2026
A ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026.✓ happened
77%
AI vs 100%
1M
14 Oct 2026
China's updated cyberspace security inspection rules take effect on 1 October 2026.✓ happened
92%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
The United States conducts additional military strikes against Iranian targets by the end of September 2026.✓ happened
52%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
At least one AI incident report is formally submitted under the EU Cyber Resilience Act in September 2026.
25%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Commercial tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz is halted due to military strikes.
15%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
The US and Iran agree to a formal bilateral ceasefire.
10%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Official investigators formally attribute the September 13 Strait of Hormuz commercial vessel attack to Iran or affiliated forces.
60%
AI
1M
1 Oct 2026
Israel initiates a major closure of its civilian airspace by September 30, 2026.
12%
AI vs 100%