THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

24 questions in Security & Defense. Sorted by newest.

1 week1 month3 months6 months1 year3 years5 years10 years50 years
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
3M 31 Dec 2026

A total internet blackout occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 26 vs market -21
7%
AI vs 28%
3M 25 Jan 2027

Capcom reports additional compromised accounts beyond the initial 11.7 million Capcom IDs.

▽ Security & Defense spread 29
20%
AI
3M 23 Jan 2027

IAEA nuclear inspectors are permitted to return to Iran.

▽ Security & Defense spread 51
38%
AI
3M 14 Jan 2027

Commercial shipping incidents occur in the Strait of Hormuz before January 2027.

▽ Security & Defense spread 50
76%
AI
3M 14 Jan 2027

Houthi forces conduct further missile or drone strikes targeting Saudi Arabian territory before December 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 21
83%
AI
3M 14 Jan 2027

The UN announces a formal ceasefire agreement in Yemen by the end of 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 14
10%
AI
3M 1 Jan 2027

The United States commences a military invasion of Cuba in 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 2 vs market -5
1%
AI vs 6%
3M 1 Jan 2027

Houthi military forces enter Aden, Yemen by December 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 4 vs market -14
4%
AI vs 18%
3M 12 Jan 2027

The United States enacts a military draft before the end of 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 2
2%
AI
3M 5 Jan 2027

Pakistani and Turkish military forces officially deploy to Saudi Arabia.

▽ Security & Defense spread 29
21%
AI
3M 3 Jan 2027

The Pentagon deploys a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East before December 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 30
22%
AI
3M 3 Jan 2027

The United States conducts military strikes against Iran between November 4, 2026, and December 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 14
14%
AI
3M 31 Dec 2026

Iran or the United States engages in renewed military action or imposes maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

▽ Security & Defense spread 54
67%
AI
3M 28 Dec 2026

A major cyberattack disables critical infrastructure in a G7 nation before December 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 20
12%
AI
3M 25 Dec 2026

President Trump orders renewed attacks in the Iran war before the 2026 midterm elections.

▽ Security & Defense spread 41
36%
AI
3M 21 Dec 2026

Jaguar Land Rover reports full remediation of its publicized cyber attack before December 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 52
67%
AI
3M 20 Dec 2026

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issues an Emergency Directive for a critical national zero-day vulnerability before November 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 60
52%
AI
3M 20 Dec 2026

Officials meeting in Paris announce an agreed post-UNIFIL security transition plan for southern Lebanon.

▽ Security & Defense spread 19
25%
AI
3M 1 Nov 2026

A direct military clash occurs between NATO forces and Russia by October 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 15 vs market +5
6%
AI vs 1%
3M 13 Dec 2026

Yemeni government or coalition forces recapture strategic coastal positions held by Houthi forces along the Red Sea.

▽ Security & Defense spread 17
18%
AI
3M 13 Dec 2026

The Houthis maintain control over Perim Island through October 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 74
68%
AI
3M 13 Dec 2026

The IAEA confirms that Iran has restored inspector access to nuclear facilities.

▽ Security & Defense spread 45
18%
AI
3M 13 Dec 2026

IAEA inspectors regain access to monitor Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles.

▽ Security & Defense spread 43
20%
AI
3M 13 Dec 2026

The United States and Iran announce a formal ceasefire.

▽ Security & Defense spread 50
18%
AI