THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

130 questions. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 137 ▲ Markets & Economy 133 ⬢ Geopolitics 100 ▢ Policy & Law 88 ◇ Gaming 88 ⚡ Energy 83 ▽ Security & Defense 73 ◉ Climate & Environment 66 ✦ Space 64 ◈ Crypto & Finance 46 ▣ Consumer Tech 42 ✚ Health & Medicine 35 ❖ Biotech 32 ▶ Transportation 30

1W 12 Oct 2026

Bitcoin drops to $78,000 or lower on Binance between October 5 and October 11, 2026.✗ didn't

◈ Crypto & Finance spread 68 vs market +16

16%

AI vs 0%

1W 12 Oct 2026

Ethereum drops to $2,500 or lower between October 5 and October 11, 2026.✓ happened

◈ Crypto & Finance spread 36 vs market -77

23%

AI vs 100%

1W 14 Oct 2026

PAX Australia begins as scheduled on October 9, 2026.✓ happened

◇ Gaming spread 6

96%

1W 14 Oct 2026

Brasil Game Show begins on October 9, 2026.✓ happened

◇ Gaming spread 19

95%

1W 14 Oct 2026

UN scientists and government officials agree on the AR7 assessment report timeline at the Addis Ababa meeting ending 16 October 2026.✗ didn't

◉ Climate & Environment spread 60

65%

1W 14 Oct 2026

The UN carbon market rule-making body adopts new rules for the crediting mechanism by 9 October 2026.✓ happened

◉ Climate & Environment spread 46

72%

1W 13 Oct 2026

The Reserve Bank of India raises its policy rate to 5.5% during the week of October 5, 2026.✓ happened

▲ Markets & Economy spread 82

77%

1W 11 Oct 2026

Crew-12 undocks from the International Space Station on October 7, 2026.✓ happened

✦ Space spread 63

58%

1W 10 Oct 2026

Italy publishes delegated decrees aligning national law with the EU AI Act by October 10, 2026.✓ happened

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 50

28%

1W 10 Oct 2026

The White House formally announces Jay Clayton as the new AI czar on October 3, 2026.✓ happened

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 24

12%

1W 10 Oct 2026

The upcoming U.S. headline PCE inflation reading meets or exceeds 3.7% year over year.✗ didn't

▲ Markets & Economy spread 21

43%

1W 9 Oct 2026

Leaders Week London takes place on October 7–8, 2026.✓ happened

◐ Sports spread 5

94%

1W 5 Oct 2026

Renan Santos finishes in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 69 vs market +4

AI vs 0%

1W 8 Oct 2026

SpaceX completes three orbital launches within a 13-hour window on October 1, 2026.✓ happened

✦ Space spread 29

34%

1W 8 Oct 2026

Weather conditions permit the launch of NASA's Crew-13 mission on October 1, 2026.✓ happened

✦ Space spread 6

55%

1W 8 Oct 2026

NASA's Crew-13 launches and docks on October 1, 2026.✓ happened

✦ Space spread 52

61%

1W 5 Oct 2026

A candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 14 vs market +14

14%

AI vs 0%

1W 5 Oct 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 35 vs market +14

14%

AI vs 0%

1W 8 Oct 2026

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended September 19 meet or exceed 201,000.✗ didn't

⌂ Work & Labor spread 36

61%

1W 5 Oct 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 21 vs market -94

AI vs 100%

1W 7 Oct 2026

The Japanese yen weakens against the U.S. dollar over the next weekly trading period.✓ happened

▲ Markets & Economy spread 19

52%

1W 7 Oct 2026

Crude oil prices settle above $100 per barrel at the next daily settlement.✓ happened

▲ Markets & Economy spread 12

1W 7 Oct 2026

U.S. Treasury yields close above 5% at the next weekly market close.✓ happened

▲ Markets & Economy spread 34

33%

1W 7 Oct 2026

The United States and Iran announce a resumption of formal negotiations or an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 24

14%

1W 6 Oct 2026

NASA and SpaceX launch Crew-13 on October 1, 2026 and dock with the ISS in under nine hours.✓ happened

✦ Space spread 34

18%

1W 5 Oct 2026

The United States and China reach an agreement on rare-earth export restrictions during the Trump-Xi meeting this week.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 23

18%

1W 5 Oct 2026

Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by the end of September 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 10

1W 4 Oct 2026

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 25 vs market +24

48%

AI vs 24%

1W 3 Oct 2026

US initial jobless claims come in below 200,000 in the next weekly report.✓ happened

⌂ Work & Labor spread 35

40%

1W 3 Oct 2026

The US 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 2.85% in the next daily Fed H.15 statistical release.✓ happened

▲ Markets & Economy spread 34

54%

1W 3 Oct 2026

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General Assembly by video during the high-level debate.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 14

94%

1W 3 Oct 2026

Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 7

1W 2 Oct 2026

Dynasty Warriors 3 Complete Edition Remastered is released on September 30, 2026.✓ happened

◇ Gaming spread 82

82%

1W 2 Oct 2026

Minecraft Dungeons II arrives on Xbox Game Pass on September 29, 2026.✓ happened

◇ Gaming spread 11

88%

1W 2 Oct 2026

Transport Fever 3 is released on September 29, 2026.✓ happened

◇ Gaming spread 30

83%

1W 2 Oct 2026

Ace Combat 8: Wings of Theve is released on September 28, 2026.✗ didn't

◇ Gaming spread 93

69%

1W 2 Oct 2026

EA Sports FC 27 launches on Nintendo systems in the UK on September 25, 2026.✓ happened

◇ Gaming spread 25

90%

1W 2 Oct 2026

Formal policy or financing commitments are announced by the close of Climate Week NYC on September 27, 2026.✓ happened

◉ Climate & Environment spread 20

92%

1M 4 Oct 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 16 vs market -74

26%

AI vs 100%

1W 2 Oct 2026

Google launches its Project Suncatcher prototype satellite for in-orbit AI computing testing by October 2026.✓ happened

✦ Space spread 37

15%

Every forecast,in order.

Bitcoin drops to $78,000 or lower on Binance between October 5 and October 11, 2026.✗ didn't

Ethereum drops to $2,500 or lower between October 5 and October 11, 2026.✓ happened

PAX Australia begins as scheduled on October 9, 2026.✓ happened

Brasil Game Show begins on October 9, 2026.✓ happened

UN scientists and government officials agree on the AR7 assessment report timeline at the Addis Ababa meeting ending 16 October 2026.✗ didn't

The UN carbon market rule-making body adopts new rules for the crediting mechanism by 9 October 2026.✓ happened

The Reserve Bank of India raises its policy rate to 5.5% during the week of October 5, 2026.✓ happened

Crew-12 undocks from the International Space Station on October 7, 2026.✓ happened

Italy publishes delegated decrees aligning national law with the EU AI Act by October 10, 2026.✓ happened

The White House formally announces Jay Clayton as the new AI czar on October 3, 2026.✓ happened

The upcoming U.S. headline PCE inflation reading meets or exceeds 3.7% year over year.✗ didn't

Leaders Week London takes place on October 7–8, 2026.✓ happened

Renan Santos finishes in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

SpaceX completes three orbital launches within a 13-hour window on October 1, 2026.✓ happened

Weather conditions permit the launch of NASA's Crew-13 mission on October 1, 2026.✓ happened

NASA's Crew-13 launches and docks on October 1, 2026.✓ happened

A candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended September 19 meet or exceed 201,000.✗ didn't

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

The Japanese yen weakens against the U.S. dollar over the next weekly trading period.✓ happened

Crude oil prices settle above $100 per barrel at the next daily settlement.✓ happened

U.S. Treasury yields close above 5% at the next weekly market close.✓ happened

The United States and Iran announce a resumption of formal negotiations or an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.✗ didn't

NASA and SpaceX launch Crew-13 on October 1, 2026 and dock with the ISS in under nine hours.✓ happened

The United States and China reach an agreement on rare-earth export restrictions during the Trump-Xi meeting this week.✗ didn't

Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by the end of September 2026.✗ didn't

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

US initial jobless claims come in below 200,000 in the next weekly report.✓ happened

The US 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 2.85% in the next daily Fed H.15 statistical release.✓ happened

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General Assembly by video during the high-level debate.✓ happened

Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't

Dynasty Warriors 3 Complete Edition Remastered is released on September 30, 2026.✓ happened

Minecraft Dungeons II arrives on Xbox Game Pass on September 29, 2026.✓ happened

Transport Fever 3 is released on September 29, 2026.✓ happened

Ace Combat 8: Wings of Theve is released on September 28, 2026.✗ didn't

EA Sports FC 27 launches on Nintendo systems in the UK on September 25, 2026.✓ happened

Formal policy or financing commitments are announced by the close of Climate Week NYC on September 27, 2026.✓ happened

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

Google launches its Project Suncatcher prototype satellite for in-orbit AI computing testing by October 2026.✓ happened

Every forecast,
in order.