THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

212 questions. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 141 ▲ Markets & Economy 139 ⬢ Geopolitics 109 ▢ Policy & Law 97 ◇ Gaming 94 ⚡ Energy 85 ▽ Security & Defense 76 ◉ Climate & Environment 69 ✦ Space 66 ▣ Consumer Tech 48 ◈ Crypto & Finance 47 ❖ Biotech 38 ✚ Health & Medicine 36 ▶ Transportation 35

1M 26 Oct 2026

A revised UN sanctions-monitoring mechanism on Iran is adopted before the current arrangement lapses.

▢ Policy & Law spread 23

10%

1M 4 Oct 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 16 vs market -74

26%

AI vs 100%

1M 24 Oct 2026

The United States and China announce a binding bilateral agreement on AI pacing or risk reduction.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 8

1M 24 Oct 2026

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for September 2026 rises month-over-month when released on October 13, 2026.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 25

77%

1M 23 Oct 2026

Houthi forces retain control of the Red Sea port of Mokha through October 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 56

82%

1M 23 Oct 2026

Iran and the United States agree to a formal ceasefire or maritime de-escalation deal by September 30, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 25

1M 1 Oct 2026

The United States announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 14 vs market +7

AI vs 0%

1M 21 Oct 2026

India and China announce a formal bilateral agreement during or following the September 22, 2026 UN General Assembly sessions.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 18

15%

1M 21 Oct 2026

The UN General Assembly adopts a formal resolution addressing alleged crimes against humanity regarding refugee camp displacements in the West Bank during its session starting September 22, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 61

25%

1M 21 Oct 2026

The Glasgow employment tribunal issues a ruling regarding the dismissal of 31 Rockstar developers by October 16, 2026.

⌂ Work & Labor spread 74

30%

1M 1 Oct 2026

IMF PortWatch records a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer transit calls in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▶ Transportation spread 15 vs market +8

AI vs 0%

1M 20 Oct 2026

The UK government formally grants regulatory approval for the Jackdaw gas project in the North Sea.

⚡ Energy spread 21

65%

1M 20 Oct 2026

Saudi Arabia reopens its east-west oil pipeline following the September 2026 drone strike shutdown.

⚡ Energy spread 10

80%

1M 19 Oct 2026

Donald Trump meets with AI executives to discuss government oversight before October 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 17

75%

1M 19 Oct 2026

The next reported weekly figure for India's foreign exchange reserves exceeds $785.7 billion.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 26

45%

1M 19 Oct 2026

The next official UK CPI release shows annual inflation higher than 3.1%.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 33

52%

1M 19 Oct 2026

Palestinian officials denied US visas attend the UN General Assembly in New York.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 65

12%

1M 19 Oct 2026

The US and Iran hold a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 59 vs market -78

22%

AI vs 100%

1M 18 Oct 2026

All providers of GPAI foundation models above the 10^25 FLOPs threshold submitted their first formal systemic risk evaluations to the European AI Office by September 15, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 31

20%

1M 18 Oct 2026

California's governor signs the frontier AI safety bill into law by midnight on September 30, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 27

62%

1M 17 Oct 2026

The Bank of England increases its policy interest rate at its next scheduled meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 39

10%

1M 17 Oct 2026

The next official U.S. employment report shows nonfarm payroll growth exceeding consensus expectations.

⌂ Work & Labor spread 13

48%

1M 17 Oct 2026

Tehran officially declares a restricted maritime zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 55

38%

1M 16 Oct 2026

UK ministers approve the Jackdaw gas project by September 30, 2026.

⚡ Energy spread 30

68%

1M 16 Oct 2026

GSK initiates a Phase III efficacy trial for FLUm3HA.b-3NA by September 30, 2026.

❖ Biotech spread 66

65%

1M 16 Oct 2026

Eurozone headline inflation exceeds 3.3% year over year in the next official release.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 34

33%

1M 16 Oct 2026

The ECB raises its key interest rates at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 19

20%

1M 15 Oct 2026

The United States approves a formal military assistance package to Saudi Arabia following the Houthi offensive.

▽ Security & Defense spread 50

30%

1M 15 Oct 2026

Israel releases Lebanese prisoners as announced.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 37

59%

1M 15 Oct 2026

Israel formally establishes a new security zone inside Lebanese territory.

▽ Security & Defense spread 26

20%

1M 1 Oct 2026

Houthi military forces enter Aden by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 3 vs market +3

AI vs 1%

1M 14 Oct 2026

The UK government formally approves the Jackdaw North Sea gas project in September 2026.✗ didn't

⚡ Energy spread 40

38%

1M 14 Oct 2026

GSK starts a Phase III efficacy trial of FLUm3HA.b-3NA in September 2026.✓ happened

❖ Biotech spread 56

44%

1M 30 Sept 2026

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026.✓ happened

▽ Security & Defense spread 24 vs market -23

77%

AI vs 100%

1M 14 Oct 2026

China issues export-control restrictions on AI models before October 2026.✗ didn't

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 43

33%

1M 14 Oct 2026

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping officially extend their bilateral trade truce at the September 24, 2026 summit.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 50

56%

Every forecast,in order.

A revised UN sanctions-monitoring mechanism on Iran is adopted before the current arrangement lapses.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

The United States and China announce a binding bilateral agreement on AI pacing or risk reduction.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for September 2026 rises month-over-month when released on October 13, 2026.

Houthi forces retain control of the Red Sea port of Mokha through October 2026.

Iran and the United States agree to a formal ceasefire or maritime de-escalation deal by September 30, 2026.

The United States announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

India and China announce a formal bilateral agreement during or following the September 22, 2026 UN General Assembly sessions.

The UN General Assembly adopts a formal resolution addressing alleged crimes against humanity regarding refugee camp displacements in the West Bank during its session starting September 22, 2026.

The Glasgow employment tribunal issues a ruling regarding the dismissal of 31 Rockstar developers by October 16, 2026.

IMF PortWatch records a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer transit calls in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

The UK government formally grants regulatory approval for the Jackdaw gas project in the North Sea.

Saudi Arabia reopens its east-west oil pipeline following the September 2026 drone strike shutdown.

Donald Trump meets with AI executives to discuss government oversight before October 2026.

The next reported weekly figure for India's foreign exchange reserves exceeds $785.7 billion.

The next official UK CPI release shows annual inflation higher than 3.1%.

Palestinian officials denied US visas attend the UN General Assembly in New York.

Houthi forces lose control of the newly seized Red Sea port city.

Saudi Arabia reopens its shut export pipeline.

The United States or Iran conducts a new military strike against the other.

PC Gaming Show Tokyo Direct airs before the end of September 2026.

The US and Iran hold a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026.✓ happened

All providers of GPAI foundation models above the 10^25 FLOPs threshold submitted their first formal systemic risk evaluations to the European AI Office by September 15, 2026.

California's governor signs the frontier AI safety bill into law by midnight on September 30, 2026.

The Bank of England increases its policy interest rate at its next scheduled meeting.

The next official U.S. employment report shows nonfarm payroll growth exceeding consensus expectations.

Tehran officially declares a restricted maritime zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026.

UK ministers approve the Jackdaw gas project by September 30, 2026.

GSK initiates a Phase III efficacy trial for FLUm3HA.b-3NA by September 30, 2026.

Eurozone headline inflation exceeds 3.3% year over year in the next official release.

The ECB raises its key interest rates at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting.

The United States approves a formal military assistance package to Saudi Arabia following the Houthi offensive.

Israel releases Lebanese prisoners as announced.

Israel formally establishes a new security zone inside Lebanese territory.

Houthi military forces enter Aden by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

The UK government formally approves the Jackdaw North Sea gas project in September 2026.✗ didn't

GSK starts a Phase III efficacy trial of FLUm3HA.b-3NA in September 2026.✓ happened

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026.✓ happened

China issues export-control restrictions on AI models before October 2026.✗ didn't

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping officially extend their bilateral trade truce at the September 24, 2026 summit.✓ happened

Every forecast,
in order.