THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

30 questions in Geopolitics. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 141 ▲ Markets & Economy 139 ⬢ Geopolitics 109 ▢ Policy & Law 97 ◇ Gaming 94 ⚡ Energy 85 ▽ Security & Defense 76 ◉ Climate & Environment 69 ✦ Space 66 ▣ Consumer Tech 48 ◈ Crypto & Finance 47 ❖ Biotech 38 ✚ Health & Medicine 36 ▶ Transportation 35

1M 27 Nov 2026

A trilateral summit between Trump, Xi, and Putin is held in November 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 24

12%

1M 27 Nov 2026

Officials from Russia and Ukraine hold an official meeting in November 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 41

36%

1M 24 Nov 2026

Direct talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran produce an announced ceasefire or agreement.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 48

20%

1M 24 Nov 2026

US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine resume in November 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 45

32%

1M 26 Oct 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12 percentage points.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 11 vs market +4

AI vs 0%

1M 4 Nov 2026

A Hormuz agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 19 vs market -1

AI vs 5%

1M 26 Oct 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 8% to 12%.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 5 vs market +4

AI vs 0%

1M 13 Nov 2026

A sustained halt in hostilities and Israeli airstrikes in Gaza is observed following reported ceasefire talks.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 24

19%

1M 25 Oct 2026

Aleksandar Vucic becomes the next Prime Minister of Serbia.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 15 vs market +9

12%

AI vs 3%

1M 11 Nov 2026

Iran formally accepts the US response regarding the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 46

30%

1M 4 Nov 2026

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through November 3, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 19 vs market -4

88%

AI vs 92%

1M 8 Nov 2026

South Korea recalls its ambassador to Ukraine over the disclosure of North Korean prisoners of war.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 8

1M 25 Oct 2026

The Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia electoral list wins the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 16 vs market +83

83%

AI vs 0%

1M 1 Nov 2026

The 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to 10 or fewer by October 31, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 14 vs market +6

AI vs 1%

1M 16 Oct 2026

The United States officially announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 15, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 14 vs market +10

10%

AI vs 0%

1M 28 Oct 2026

The United States provides an official formal response to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz proposal.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 53

25%

1M 4 Oct 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 16 vs market -74

26%

AI vs 100%

1M 23 Oct 2026

Iran and the United States agree to a formal ceasefire or maritime de-escalation deal by September 30, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 25

1M 21 Oct 2026

India and China announce a formal bilateral agreement during or following the September 22, 2026 UN General Assembly sessions.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 18

15%

1M 21 Oct 2026

The UN General Assembly adopts a formal resolution addressing alleged crimes against humanity regarding refugee camp displacements in the West Bank during its session starting September 22, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 61

25%

1M 19 Oct 2026

Palestinian officials denied US visas attend the UN General Assembly in New York.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 65

12%

1M 30 Sept 2026

The US and Iran hold a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 59 vs market -78

22%

AI vs 100%

1M 15 Oct 2026

Israel releases Lebanese prisoners as announced.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 37

59%

1M 14 Oct 2026

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping officially extend their bilateral trade truce at the September 24, 2026 summit.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 50

56%

1M 14 Oct 2026

U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a concrete ceasefire framework between Russia and Ukraine.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 33

12%

1M 14 Oct 2026

Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement on a broader ceasefire beyond the three-day strike halt.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 10

13%

1M 14 Oct 2026

The DRC and M23-led AFC alliance convene talks under the Doha framework following the Geneva security meeting.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 29

38%

1M 14 Oct 2026

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner broker an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 14

1M 1 Oct 2026

Iran and Oman announce a diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

⬢ Geopolitics spread 10 vs market +6

AI vs 0%

1M 30 Sept 2026

United Russia gains the most seats in the September 2026 Russian State Duma election.✓ happened

⬢ Geopolitics spread 57 vs market -55

45%

AI vs 100%

Every forecast,in order.

A trilateral summit between Trump, Xi, and Putin is held in November 2026.

Officials from Russia and Ukraine hold an official meeting in November 2026.

Direct talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran produce an announced ceasefire or agreement.

US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine resume in November 2026.

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12 percentage points.

A Hormuz agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 8% to 12%.

A sustained halt in hostilities and Israeli airstrikes in Gaza is observed following reported ceasefire talks.

Aleksandar Vucic becomes the next Prime Minister of Serbia.

Iran formally accepts the US response regarding the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through November 3, 2026.

South Korea recalls its ambassador to Ukraine over the disclosure of North Korean prisoners of war.

The Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia electoral list wins the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.

The 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to 10 or fewer by October 31, 2026.

The United States officially announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 15, 2026.

The United States provides an official formal response to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz proposal.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

Iran and the United States agree to a formal ceasefire or maritime de-escalation deal by September 30, 2026.

India and China announce a formal bilateral agreement during or following the September 22, 2026 UN General Assembly sessions.

The UN General Assembly adopts a formal resolution addressing alleged crimes against humanity regarding refugee camp displacements in the West Bank during its session starting September 22, 2026.

Palestinian officials denied US visas attend the UN General Assembly in New York.

The US and Iran hold a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026.✓ happened

Israel releases Lebanese prisoners as announced.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping officially extend their bilateral trade truce at the September 24, 2026 summit.✓ happened

U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a concrete ceasefire framework between Russia and Ukraine.✗ didn't

Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement on a broader ceasefire beyond the three-day strike halt.✗ didn't

The DRC and M23-led AFC alliance convene talks under the Doha framework following the Geneva security meeting.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner broker an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Iran and Oman announce a diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

United Russia gains the most seats in the September 2026 Russian State Duma election.✓ happened

Every forecast,
in order.