THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

17 questions in Artificial Intelligence. Sorted by newest.

1 week1 month3 months6 months1 year3 years5 years10 years50 years
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
1M 28 Nov 2026

The European Commission closes its public consultation on draft implementing rules for EU AI Act enforcement on 9 November 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 9
90%
AI
1M 18 Nov 2026

Significant eurozone banks submit their AI cybersecurity action plans to the ECB by October 31, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 7
89%
AI
1M 16 Nov 2026

The public comment period for Colorado's draft rules on automated decision systems closes by 26 October 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 19
93%
AI
1M 31 Oct 2026

An Anthropic model holds the top rank on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard on October 31, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 35 vs market +18
27%
AI vs 9%
1M 24 Oct 2026

The United States and China announce a binding bilateral agreement on AI pacing or risk reduction.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 8
6%
AI
1M 19 Oct 2026

Donald Trump meets with AI executives to discuss government oversight before October 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 17
75%
AI
1M 18 Oct 2026

All providers of GPAI foundation models above the 10^25 FLOPs threshold submitted their first formal systemic risk evaluations to the European AI Office by September 15, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 31
20%
AI
1M 18 Oct 2026

California's governor signs the frontier AI safety bill into law by midnight on September 30, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 27
62%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

China issues export-control restrictions on AI models before October 2026.✗ didn't

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 43
33%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

The United States and China hold bilateral AI safety talks before the end of September 2026.✓ happened

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 17
83%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

Governor Gavin Newsom signs the Frontier AI Safety Act into law by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 35
38%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

The United States and China hold bilateral AI safety talks in September 2026.✓ happened

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 21
78%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

California Governor Gavin Newsom signs SB 813 into law by 30 September 2026.✓ happened

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 44
62%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

The Governor of California signs SB 1000 into law by September 30, 2026.✓ happened

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 60
63%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

California's governor signs SB 1000 into law by September 30, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 29
54%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

California's governor signs SB 813 into law by September 30, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 52
51%
AI
1M 14 Oct 2026

California Governor Gavin Newsom signs SB 1047 into law by September 30, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 8
2%
AI